Interesting rumour!?

[SPK-250]

So i get into work this arvo(3.20) and my buddy who drives a fork comes up and says that he was just talking to a truck driver, that reckons that Holden will be shutting down their arvo shift sometime this year! We conversed over this rumour for a bit and then got back to work.

Then at about 7pm another mate, who's mate works at Holden rings him up and proceeds to let on about the "BIG" rumour down there at Elizbeff, that at Christmas time 1500 jobs will be going!! And also, in 2 years time Holden plan to shut down the Elizbeff plant!!

Something to do with the Exports and Interest rates.

And before anyone jumps their guns, everytime a rumour of such nature comes through our work it usually ends up being true.

So there you go, 1 rumour from 2 entirely not related sources. Being in the industry i wonder if this will come to fruition(sp?).

[vztrt]

Well its just a rumour at this stage. Shutting down a shift I could believe but closing production is far fetched. The industry is still viable, I'd change 2 years to 8.

And just remember if Holden shut up manufacturing, Ford will do the same and vice versa.

[GS608]

Originally Posted by vztrt

Well its just a rumour at this stage. Shutting down a shift I could believe but closing production is far fetched. The industry is still viable, I'd change 2 years to 8.

And just remember if Holden shut up manufacturing, Ford will do the same and vice versa.

maybe GM see the commodore as their car, therefor instead of losing out on it with our strong $$, they want to build it somewhere where it will make a profit for them, closing down or limiting the production over here, once again we're screwed by the US??

[4Vman]

Ive been hearing for a while that GM are looking at a feasibility plan to building the G8 in the US for economic reasons. There is little viability in building this car here for export, it makes sense for us to import it from the states if they have a greater production demand for it there than us here..

[FGII-XR6]

Originally Posted by vztrt

And just remember if Holden shut up manufacturing, Ford will do the same and vice versa.

maybe not can't you see the advertising " Falcon the only Australian Built large car" ? Would boost sales considerably I think

[InfernoSR]

Well with all the part supplier take overs and limiting of production due to economics... i could see it happening...

[ltd]

Large car segment is dying, Holden have found out that they can still sell cars on their reputation and advertising as proven by the rebadged Daewoo's.
Wouldn't be surprised especially as the VE numbers have suffered (as have Falcon) under the pressure of fuel price increases and the global warming mob hating anything not hybrid. Oh well, where's Dave Hughes? "Holden means Sweet FA to Austraaaayyyyia"

[Fordman1]

Holden have been losing a lot or money recently if you look at their end of years results.

It will be interesting to see this years result.

As ltd mentions above the large car segment is dying, and the total industry volume is now being spread over many more models.

Something has to give soon !

BTW: Holden don't make money on G8 exports either.

[SPK-250]

Originally Posted by Barraxr8

BTW: Holden don't make money on G8 exports either.

Thats what the basis of the rumour is. With our dollars almost in line with each other, GM U.S is probably paying 30% or so more than they would rather on the G8 as well.

P.S that is just a rough estimation and my view as i i am not as smart as some people on here.

[LeadFoot81]

So how long before we start getting Chinese Statesmans and American Commodores?
Its looking increasingly like the next Falcon (2011-12) will be imported as well.

[Donut King]

Originally Posted by au3xr6

maybe not can't you see the advertising " Falcon the only Australian Built large car" ? Would boost sales considerably I think

It wouldn't last long, without holden producing cars here the economies of scale most likely wouldn't stack up and sure enough Ford would cease local production also.

With mitsubishi gone we can't really afford to lose another manufacturer, so we need each of the remaining players to maintain strong sales.

[Fordman1]

Originally Posted by SPK-250

Thats what the basis of the rumour is. With our dollars almost in line with each other, GM U.S is probably paying 30% or so more than they would rather on the G8 as well.

P.S that is just a rough estimation and my view as i i am not as smart as some people on here.

I think you're right.

1 Billion dollars spent on a vehicle that is doing about 3,500 sales a month (many to fleet) and that is exported with little profit. That's what I think is fueling this rumour.

Not to say Ford is doing any better - the proof will be in the profit / loss announcements.

[swapper]

Originally Posted by au3xr6

maybe not can't you see the advertising " Falcon the only Australian Built large car" ? Would boost sales considerably I think

Holden closing down there Australian plants would destroy the Falcon, all of the suppliers in Australia heavily rely on both Holden and Ford, if Holden went down, so would most of the suppliers, Ford cant sustain the industry on their own

And whilst this rumour may be true in the long term, I don’t think it would be viable in the near future, their plants are not far off capacity, and GM cant have any plants overseas producing enough to pick up the slack of the lost 2nd shift by Christmas

Plus they also have new models coming in and extra export models…….so I don’t think there is much truth to the rumour at all

And Holden are doing pretty good financially, better than Ford Australia, I understand they have posted some losses, but that was planned for and predicted because they just made a 1 billion dollar investment in the VE, but they are now exporting good volumes, with plenty more programs coming in, give it a while for those investments to get paid off and I think Holden will start to turnover some tidy profits, and GM in Detroit are happy with Holden's performance and that is the big indicator that everything is running as planned

[Raptor]

Originally Posted by Donut King

...the economies of scale most likely wouldn't stack up and sure enough Ford would cease local production also...

Don't forget that Ford Aus will also be the Sthn. Hemisphere production centre for the Focus by 2010/11. I wonder if we'll all end up thanking the now departed Tom Gorman for that in a few years time ;)

I just knew that getting the yanks hooked on our cars would end badly, I hope this rumour is wrong.

[351@GT]

re the G8, the yanks already pay less for it than we do for the equiv SS

pretty much means they losing on it atm

[swapper]

Originally Posted by 351@GT

re the G8, the yanks already pay less for it than we do for the equiv SS

pretty much means they losing on it atm

not losing on it, just making less,

Also they dont even Necessarily make less on it, the VE is budgeted to pay for all the design and tooling over a few years, where as the G8 does not include those costs (as the G8 export wasn’t guarnteed when the VE program was being developed), therefore they can ship it, and sell it cheaper the an SS and still possibly make a decent profit

[Fordman1]

Originally Posted by swapper

And Holden are doing pretty good financially,

Lets see when (if) they post their results. Remember they held on to the last ones for 2 years recently before making them public.

They may or may not be profitable (I think we'll find out in a few months), but 'doing pretty good' ? No I don't think so. That would be a $300 + mill profit on their investments.

The news within the industry is they are doing it hard also.

[SPK-250]

Even if they were making profit, i think and as stated earlier on, it has to do with the U.S. If they can build and sell the car over there for the same or lesser amount of dollars then why would they continue to wait for them on a boat when they can get them straight from the factory to the showroom floor.

[swapper]

Originally Posted by Barraxr8

Lets see when (if) they post their results. Remember they held on to the last ones for 2 years recently before making them public.

They may or may not be profitable (I think we'll find out in a few months), but 'doing pretty good' ? No I don't think so. That would be a $300 + mill profit on their investments.

The news within the industry is they are doing it hard also.

yes, i know they are doing it a little hard, but i guess i meant compartively they are doing pretty, all the OEMs aside from some of the high end European brands are doing it tough.

and yes $300 million profit on their investments would be doing great, but thats over the life of the investment, which is likely to be near a decade

But even if they fall short of the 300 mill its not too bad as long as they make a decent profit, it doesnt have to be up at 30%! as we all know the margins in the automotive manufacturing industry aren't anywhere near as high as most industries

either way, i just hope both ford and holden remain profitable in the long run. and each one needs the other in australia
im not biased to either brand, im a car fan 1st and an Australian car fan 2nd

but i seriously doubt that the 2nd shift will be gone by christmas, to put it simply, 1 shift isnt enough to produce their current volume, and between now and christmas isnt enough time to set up a plant and a supplier network (even if plans have begun)

[Fordman1]

Originally Posted by swapper

But even if they fall short of the 300 mill its not too bad as long as they make a decent profit, it doesnt have to be up at 30%! as we all know the margins in the automotive manufacturing industry aren't anywhere near as high as most industries

$300 Mil wouldn't be 30 %. The profit is also on the back of the many millions that it costs to run the business in ongoing daily manufacturing.

Material costs.

Labour and over-head.

Logistics etc.

Marketing & Sales.

R&D.

$300 would be closer to 8% I'm guessing.

[Buddy 1]

Ok so we stop importing all these cheap Asian vehicles, increase Tariffs on those that get through & Charge a bit more for Falcons & Commodores.

And remove the GST on Fuel & never place a Tax on LPG.

Then let Aussie Ford & Holden develop more Fuel efficient Vehicles to make up for the Loss of the Imported ones & Problem Solved

Let us take it to the Asians, not let them Destroy our Industry!

Aussie Aussie Aussie Oi Oi Oi

[swapper]

hahah true i just figured because you were saying "300 mill on their investments" you were just referring to the billion dollar initial investment

also, 8% is considered pretty good in the the automotive industry

[Donut King]

Originally Posted by Raptor

Don't forget that Ford Aus will also be the Sthn. Hemisphere production centre for the Focus by 2010/11. I wonder if we'll all end up thanking the now departed Tom Gorman for that in a few years time ;)

I just knew that getting the yanks hooked on our cars would end badly, I hope this rumour is wrong.

I'm aware of that, but I am not sure an extra line of vehicles is a suitable replacement for a whole extra manufacturer, especially if the focus is merely assembled here rather than being a full scale production effort.

[sleekism]

Originally Posted by Buddy 1

Ok so we stop importing all these cheap Asian vehicles, increase Tariffs on those that get through & Charge a bit more for Falcons & Commodores.

And remove the GST on Fuel & never place a Tax on LPG.

Then let Aussie Ford & Holden develop more Fuel efficient Vehicles to make up for the Loss of the Imported ones & Problem Solved

Let us take it to the Asians, not let them Destroy our Industry!

Aussie Aussie Aussie Oi Oi Oi

I'm with you!!

Screw the Asians they don't give a stuff about us.

I don't want my hard earned dollars converted to Yen.

[tetgreg888]

Originally Posted by Buddy 1

Ok so we stop importing all these cheap Asian vehicles, increase Tariffs on those that get through & Charge a bit more for Falcons & Commodores.

And remove the GST on Fuel & never place a Tax on LPG.

Then let Aussie Ford & Holden develop more Fuel efficient Vehicles to make up for the Loss of the Imported ones & Problem Solved

Let us take it to the Asians, not let them Destroy our Industry!

Aussie Aussie Aussie Oi Oi Oi

Buddy 1 for PM FTW

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by swapper

And Holden are doing pretty good financially, better than Ford Australia.

Wrong. Holden has lost way more money than Ford have over the last few years. Last year was the first time Ford had lost money since I think 2002 and it was a relatively small $40 million, while Holden lost well over $100 million. From what i've heard Ford may break even this year and be profitable next year, but thats just a prediction, things can change.

[Fordman1]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

Wrong. Holden has lost way more money than Ford have over the last few years. Last year was the first time Ford had lost money since I think 2002 and it was a relatively small $40 million, while Holden lost well over $100 million. From what i've heard Ford may break even this year and be profitable next year, but thats just a prediction, things can change.

True.

Ford have "battened down the hatches" and have absolutely screwed down costs over the last 18 months (ask anyone that works there about how hard it is to get money for anything !!). Ford may not be selling many cars, but have downsized to be quite profitable at lower volumes when sales improve.

I imagine Holden will be doing the same now.

[vztrt]

Swapper, the VE hasn't done well since the it's launch. The numbers that Holden budgeted in units per month well well short. So how did they try get around their increasing stockpile? Well they built more export units, but stocks have filled up and the aussie doller is strong. Holden aren't doing any better.
The VE made a loss in its first year out (Jeez even the AU I made a profit when it was released). There's inkilings going around that Toyota are having problems with the strong doller.

[rodderz]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

Wrong. Holden has lost way more money than Ford have over the last few years. Last year was the first time Ford had lost money since I think 2002 and it was a relatively small $40 million, while Holden lost well over $100 million. From what i've heard Ford may break even this year and be profitable next year, but thats just a prediction, things can change.

I have heard that Ford actually has a higher rate of money made vs cars manufactured or imported, meaning that they are making money rather than losing. Whereas Holden are making and selling more cars, but overall the ratio between made vs sold isnt as high.

Ford has monthly limits on Mondeo, XR5 etc which can rile up customers that wait months for their car, yet from Ford's point of view they sell every car they order from OS at a price where they can make more money from it

[vztrt]

Originally Posted by rodderz

I have heard that Ford actually has a higher rate of money made vs cars manufactured or imported, meaning that they are making money rather than losing. Whereas Holden are making and selling more cars, but overall the ratio between made vs sold isnt as high.

Well apparently for a lease car the Falcon costs more then the equvilant commo, not sure how true it in the current car market. I'm sure there are others who can give this a yay or nay.