Monthly VFACTS figures are iffy, here's why:

[Spammy]

Originally Posted by turbodewd

But everyone would agree you should compare apples with apples. Mazda 3 and Commodore dont exactly compete for the same market segment, only partially.

Mazda3 (no space btw) competes against lots of cars and wins in a very competitive market - whereas Commodores and Falcons only compete against each other (and still lose), because the large 6cly RWD domestic sector is dead and nobody else builds cars for a dead market segment.

It's all over for the Falcon - they should avoid the brand damage and embarrasment of a slow & painful death and just stop production. Mitsubishi have done much better since they stopped selling (giving away) the 380.

Nobody wants to buy from a brand where the rancid smell of impending death hangs over the salesfloor.

[Nikked]

Originally Posted by turbodewd

Commodore base model Omega price: $32,000
Mazda 3 base model, Neo, price: $22,000

December 2011 VFACTS, top 3:

1 Toyota Corolla – 3619
2 Mazda3 – 3325
3 Holden Commodore – 2814

Turbodewd's Dec 11 VFACTS by value:

Commodore - $90,048,000 (sales x price)
Mazda 3 - $73,150,000

So as you can see you can make stats say anything. Large car segment is more valuable. Of course they will sell less compared to the Mazda 3, the commdore is 50% dearer coz u get a bigger, more powerful car which can tow and seat 5 in greater space than the smaller mazda 3. I would also rather be in a commodore rather than a mazda 3 if I was to suffer a bingle.

If only that Fairfax journo twit and traitor Joshua Dowling would publish these stats too.

Commodore and Falcon sales are fine. Falcon loses some sales to the Terri so really you can add those together for the health of Ford Oz and now the Terri is kicking posterior!

Worst theory ever...

[Bossxr8]

Sales numbers for Falcon and Territory were never going to be good, a month of factory shutdown, very few production days in January and then the stock they did have got hail damaged.

February is the month to gauge how they are going, no days off, and a bit of overtime or increased production to replace hail damaged cars has been done. LPi builds have doubled too. So if things aren't good in Feb they may as well shut up shop now.

With no advertising to let the public know they have an upgraded model and new LPi engine, its like Ford are letting it slowly die so it makes the decision to kill it off easier in the future. They really couldn't care less it seems. How can you release new products and then expect people to automatically know they are now on sale. Idiots.

[bobthebilda]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

Sales numbers for Falcon and Territory were never going to be good, a month of factory shutdown, very few production days in January and then the stock they did have got hail damaged.
.

Not too sure I ever understood this theory of a factory shutdown affecting sales. Can you please explain. Altho we like to think the car makers operate on a just in time system ,or they only make what they sell, its very common to have at least 60 to 70 days of stock (some in yard, alot at delaers). 3 or 4 weeks of a shutdown wont affect current sales, but it might affect sales 2 months down the track (but thats only if they didnt think too well ahead and planned for orders).

Hail damaged on 25th december affecting january sales. mmmmm maybe some, but 931 (sales for month), with a 40% allowance for lost sales due to hail damaged is still nothing to write home about.

[dimka100]

Are they going to fix the damaged panels on these cars or they just gonna strip the inner parts and use them in new chassis?

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

Sales numbers for Falcon and Territory were never going to be good, a month of factory shutdown, very few production days in January and then the stock they did have got hail damaged.

[SteveJH]

Originally Posted by bobthebilda

Not too sure I ever understood this theory of a factory shutdown affecting sales. Can you please explain. Altho we like to think the car makers operate on a just in time system ,or they only make what they sell, its very common to have at least 60 to 70 days of stock (some in yard, alot at delaers). 3 or 4 weeks of a shutdown wont affect current sales, but it might affect sales 2 months down the track (but thats only if they didnt think too well ahead and planned for orders).

I don't know how much new stock most Ford Dealers keep on hand but I was out at the local dealer mid january and saw a grand total of 2 FG2 falcons, all other falcon stock appeared to be either Demo's or second hand.

So if you wipe out the stock sitting outside the factory......

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by bobthebilda

Not too sure I ever understood this theory of a factory shutdown affecting sales. Can you please explain. Altho we like to think the car makers operate on a just in time system ,or they only make what they sell, its very common to have at least 60 to 70 days of stock (some in yard, alot at delaers). 3 or 4 weeks of a shutdown wont affect current sales, but it might affect sales 2 months down the track (but thats only if they didnt think too well ahead and planned for orders).

Hail damaged on 25th december affecting january sales. mmmmm maybe some, but 931 (sales for month), with a 40% allowance for lost sales due to hail damaged is still nothing to write home about.

Cause they aren't delivering cars to order are they. Cars held in stock aren't ones with specific options, colours etc.

And they had bugger all FG MkII stock anyway, next to none. They only started delivering some of them a few weeks before Christmas. Wipe a lot of the ones built out with hail damage and you have 2 fifths of f all.

February should be a good month, the build numbers have had to be increased to replace the hail damaged stock, and not a single day off for the month.

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by dimka100

Are they going to fix the damaged panels on these cars or they just gonna strip the inner parts and use them in new chassis?

From what I can gather the lightly damaged ones will be fixed with paintless dent repair, and offered to customers at a discount. Heavier damaged vehicles will be sold off at auction I think.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by bobthebilda

Hail damaged on 25th december affecting january sales. mmmmm maybe some, but 931 (sales for month),
with a 40% allowance for lost sales due to hail damaged is still nothing to write home about.

1500 cars were damaged, the plant didn't start up until the first or second week in January?

Combined sales of Falcon, Territory and Ute is ONLY 200 sales less than January 2011....
This year, the excuse is that customer orders couldn't be filled due to hail damage..

Only two weeks production (2,200 vehicles) to replace damaged cars that couldn't be shipped
sounds more than reasonable to me...

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

Cause they aren't delivering cars to order are they. Cars held in stock aren't ones with specific options, colours etc.

And they had bugger all FG MkII stock anyway, next to none. They only started delivering some of them a few weeks before Christmas. Wipe a lot of the ones built out with hail damage and you have 2 fifths of f all.

February should be a good month, the build numbers have had to be increased to replace the hail damaged stock, and not a single day off for the month.

Wells said Boss, I just saw your post...

[Road_Warrior]

Originally Posted by bobthebilda

Not too sure I ever understood this theory of a factory shutdown affecting sales. Can you please explain. Altho we like to think the car makers operate on a just in time system ,or they only make what they sell, its very common to have at least 60 to 70 days of stock (some in yard, alot at delaers). 3 or 4 weeks of a shutdown wont affect current sales, but it might affect sales 2 months down the track (but thats only if they didnt think too well ahead and planned for orders).

Hail damaged on 25th december affecting january sales. mmmmm maybe some, but 931 (sales for month), with a 40% allowance for lost sales due to hail damaged is still nothing to write home about.

It will effect sales when the transport industry winds down for the Christmas/NYE break and then dealers cannot get stock because the 1500 cars Broadmeadows had outside got smashed up by hail, if the dealers can't get the cars they can't register them for buyers and aren't counted in VFacts

[bobthebilda]

I understand where you guys are coming from, its always next month that Falcon sales will bounce. But I think its reasonable to believe that commodore sales were down around 20% from last january, so maybe Falcons should be too.

Doesnt explain why the likes of Mazda 3's werent, but maybe its just a shift.

[Dr Smith]

Originally Posted by bobthebilda

Hail damaged on 25th december affecting january sales. mmmmm maybe some, but 931 (sales for month), with a 40% allowance for lost sales due to hail damaged is still nothing to write home about.

The major concern would be if they only sold 931 cars and had 2500 still hanging around...which they don't.

Plus 1500 of the cars built and available for delivery to dealers from factory storage post 25 Dec '11 have been held back for repairs or auction house selling also reducing "sellable cars". Just maybe Ford actually sold most of what was around. I know that the Jefferson group holding yard in Boundary Rd Mordialloc went very bare until just recently.

[Dr Smith]

Originally Posted by bobthebilda

I understand where you guys are coming from, its always next month that Falcon sales will bounce. But I think its reasonable to believe that commodore sales were down around 20% from last january, so maybe Falcons should be too.

Doesnt explain why the likes of Mazda 3's werent, but maybe its just a shift.

Most definately a shift in buyer preference. If Falcon was the only large car sold in Australia today, the numbers would just match AU-only sales, such is the change in large car sales. Or another way, the combined sales of Mazda3 and Corolla in Jan '12 would be about the average number of VY/VZ-only sales per month in their heyday as well. Large car segment has shrunk faster then a woollen jumber in boiling water.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by bobthebilda

I understand where you guys are coming from, its always next month that Falcon sales will bounce. But I think its reasonable to believe that commodore sales were down around 20% from last january, so maybe Falcons should be too.

Doesnt explain why the likes of Mazda 3's werent, but maybe its just a shift.

Ford and Holden have to change otherwise they will just ride the current cars into the dust...
The Aussie consumer is voting with their wallets and both companies have to listen.
The limiting factor here isn't the willingness to build cars, it's the lack of interest in buying them
and if buyers shun the two local big cars, they could be gone in the next two years
regardless of existing plans to continue production until whenever.



Combining with a mid sized model would enable both to spread costs across more vehicles
covering a broader spectrum of customers by giving near th same room, better economy and lower price.

[Rodp]

Originally Posted by turbodewd

Commodore base model Omega price: $32,000
Mazda 3 base model, Neo, price: $22,000

December 2011 VFACTS, top 3:

1 Toyota Corolla – 3619
2 Mazda3 – 3325
3 Holden Commodore – 2814

Turbodewd's Dec 11 VFACTS by value:

Commodore - $90,048,000 (sales x price)
Mazda 3 - $73,150,000

If only that Fairfax journo twit and traitor Joshua Dowling would publish these stats too.

Those figures are useless. Not hard to multiply one figure with another, but how much profit did each vehicle range bring into the company? Just because the Commy sold a little less at a higher price, I'm sure the cost of production is also significantly higher than the Mazda3.

[turbodewd]

rodp, those figures arent useless. How can you directly compare a $22k car with a $32k one, of course you sell more of something cheaper generally speaking.

The large car segment wont disappear, although it could become nonviable for Aussie producers.

I echo the sentiments of some here, why doesnt Ford advertise at the moment???

[Rodp]

Originally Posted by turbodewd

rodp, those figures arent useless. How can you directly compare a $22k car with a $32k one, of course you sell more of something cheaper generally speaking.

How much profit per vehicle is a lot more important than how much it sells for. How can you directly compare? Simple. They're new vehicles being sold, that's all the metric measures.. a metric that's been measured and used as comparison for many years. A comparison we make in many markets, regardless of RRP.

Multiplying cars sold vs RRP is pointless. For all we know, the Mazda could be selling for a profit while the Commy is being sold at a loss.

[Nikked]

Yep, with out profits, costings etc...those figure are meaningless...


One car is imported, one is built here...


for all we know the mazda is 70% profit and the holden is only 40%...


You have to be blind freddy to not notice the fall of large car sales...

Australia has the triple threat of falling sales, increasing manufacture costs and competitive cheap imports.


Unless ford and holden expend the large car's appeal, whilst cuttting cost, they are doomed.

[Shonky.]

They're not meaningless. All this crap about profits and multiply price by sales number is meaningless (such as the OP)

Sales figures are a time series and should be treated as such. Compare this period with the last and the one before that.

They are for monitoring consumers buying preferences which ultimately define profit. Unless you have some reason to believe the strategy of one if the manufacturers or models has changed (for eg the Getz is now a luxury performance model) then the time series is useful.

It can be affected by seasonalities or unusual events which may be worth considering, but trying to drag all this other stuff in is just noise

Just realized poster above meant the multiplication was useless, not sales figures. My bad

[EgoFG]

Falcon Platform: 2129
Commodore Platform: 2739
Falcon is making 78% of Commodore's figures.
The only figures other than the totals that are directly comparable are the utes, where Falcon makes 83% of Commodore's figures.

I do not actually see this as bad, and I would suggest that Ford is making more profit on those sales.

I would love to see 6cyl sedan vss 6cyl sedan sales for Falcon vss Commodore - a nice apples vss apples comparison.

[MrZ]

Not sure where you're getting your info from but the Omega base price is $39,990, not $32,000, and the Mazda3 is $20,330, not $22,000.

Anyway, your calculations are flawed because you don't take into consideration the actual transaction price. Your figures assume that everybody is paying either $32k or $22k. In other words, you're assuming that everyone is buying the base model. What about the higher up models? We have no way of knowing the average sale price of each model.