Well its official.....

[MO]

Well you can pick up where you left off and make a difference when your done.

[thefargo]

mo, you've hit the nail on the head. are politicians and judges going to start tightening their belts?

[MO]

House and land prices can be expected to drop by 5% at least.

[brenx]

Originally Posted by MO

Well you can pick up where you left off and make a difference when your done.

Unfortunately I have financial commitments and family to look after. It's the kind of thing you look back on and think I should have studied more instead of working. I was robbed of opportunities when I was kicked out of home @ 18.

[ED Classic]

Originally Posted by ebxr8240

When I first came here farmers where loosing their farms etc...Way before Mr Keating.....

Just not 1000th of the later amount

[4.9 EF Futura]

The notion that a government should be strung up when the target cash rate is at 6% is laughable. Put whatever spin you like on it - 6% is low. Hell, 7% would be low and that's another 4 rate rises away.

Actually there's often a lot to laugh about when the RBA lifts its target cash rate. Fingers are pointed in all sorts of directions - woolies and their banana pricing regime, howard and his chauferred vehicles etc etc.

It's always someone elses fault.

Did anyone actually bother to read the RBA's quarterly statement on monetary policy?

Better yet - even bother to read the paper when it was front page news?

I thought the RBA summed it up brilliantly. WE ARE AT FAULT. You can blame any figure head you like, but at the end of the day the blame lies with the 20 million people in this country and our obsession with debt and spending.

Do you honestly think bannanas have that much impact on a $610 billion economy? Puh-lease. Yes, they're in "the basket" and feed into CPI figures, but the underlying fact is that the economy is booming. We're fast approaching that production frontier.

How many people tapped into the equity of their home in the last 24 months? Come on now - be honest. You wanted that new XR6t... new hifi? TV? Extension?

How many people went into the bank and said "How much can we borrow??" instead of asking yourself "how much can we afford?" or better yet "how much can we afford if rates rise this year?". Of course when the mortgage defaults, it'll be "the bank's fault", right?? "They forced us to borrow that much". Typical lack of personal responsibility in the year 2006.

Front page of our local rag, Mr and Mrs Average complaining about the additional stress this places on their finances... perhaps Mr and Mrs Average should have thought about that before borrowing $400,000 and committing 50% of their pay to mortgage repayments???

We have borrowed to the bones of our asses and spent every penny of that debt. Anyone managed to save a decent amount of money in the past 24 months?

Do i think the last rise was needed? Yes!!!

OK, so remove bananas and petrol from the equation and you have 3% underlying. That's still at the higher end of the desirable range. And the fact you could remove petrol from the "basket" is ridiculous when its so systemic to our existance. Also remember that when we approach the production frontier, inflation starts to rise at an exponential rate. Hence the CPI figures that came out just before the last RBA meeting were such a shock.

The last tap of the brakes from the RBA did nothing. Unemployment continued to fall, people continued to spend, debt continued to pile up. The country needs to slow down. Personally, i think its probably a good thing for homeowners that petrol prices have been so high. Imagine what the target rate would be if you didnt have this "quasi" interest rate rise at the pumps. But even at $1.40 a litre, people bury their heads in the sand and keep spending spending spending. We dont get the message and then we cry foul when the decision is made for us.

PLEASE dont believe the claims being made that it's just some right-wing conspiracy. We NEED to slow this country down, or else you can count on the RBA doing it for you.

The market has priced in one more rate rise before the end of the year and i would tend to agree.

It's such a shame that something as beautiful as macroeconomics has such close ties to politics. It really is an amazing technical subject, it pains me to see it reduced to nothing more than an election issue. An opportunity to inform and discuss is thrown on to the same tawdry pile as broken promises and campaign budgets.

Happy to elaborate on any comments made.... i live and breath economics...

[XA Coupsta]

Great post 4.9 EF Futura.....

[Outbackjack]

What will really hurt, and is tied to the middle east situation at the moment, is one of the tools that Iran has in its war chest. And that tool will soon be implemented. They will almost certainly within the next few weeks (a month perhaps) turn off their supply of oil to most of the world. Remember that Iran supply 30% of the worlds crude. A quick calculation would put a litre of 91RON at around $3.00. I hope that I am wrong here, but I fear that it will come to pass.

Anyone a nice BF XR8 going cheap!!! :hihi:

[Outbackjack]

Originally Posted by max

MO and Olfella, I'd like you guys over for dinner sometime. I got a feeling we
share some basic views!

Can I come too. Some of the stuff I could , but cant, tell you would send you grey. I like prawns.

Cheers.

[4.9 EF Futura]

Originally Posted by Outbackjack

Remember that Iran supply 30% of the worlds crude. A quick calculation would put a litre of 91RON at around $3.00.

Where did you get these figures?

My resources show that Iran produces less than 10% of the world's current daily oil production. Just over 6% in 2002. Obviously enough to disrupt the market, but no where near 30%.

Lol, do i get an invite to this dinner? I'll bring the wine... but think i would fear for my safety at such a function e

[Casper]

Originally Posted by 4.9 EF Futura

Lol, do i get an invite to this dinner? I'll bring the wine... but think i would fear for my safety at such a function e

I think Vodka will be the drink of choice.. Da?? :

[Outbackjack]

Originally Posted by 4.9 EF Futura

Where did you get these figures?

My resources show that Iran produces less than 10% of the world's current daily oil production. Just over 6% in 2002. Obviously enough to disrupt the market, but no where near 30%.

Lol, do i get an invite to this dinner? I'll bring the wine... but think i would fear for my safety at such a function e

"Petroleum has been the main industry in Iran since the 1920s. Iran was the world's fourth largest producer of crude oil and the second largest exporter of petroleum at the peak of its oil industry in the mid-1970s. The war with Iraq cut Iran's production in the 1980s, although Iranian oil reserves remained the fourth largest in the world."

Taken for the US global security web page. The total of oil produced is not necessarily measured by barrels per day. There are many other factors involved, one of them being reserves. Iran has some of the largest reserves in the world.

I think you would be safe enough, as long as you dont bring cheap wine!!

Cheers.

[conordec]

who would have thought "bananas" would be such a twisted topic.
change diets.
don't borrow to the hilt and you'll be fine.
rates are STILL LOW!

[charles_wif_xf]

Originally Posted by 4.9 EF Futura

The notion that a government should be strung up when the target cash rate is at 6% is laughable. Put whatever spin you like on it - 6% is low. Hell, 7% would be low and that's another 4 rate rises away.

Actually there's often a lot to laugh about when the RBA lifts its target cash rate. Fingers are pointed in all sorts of directions - woolies and their banana pricing regime, howard and his chauferred vehicles etc etc.

It's always someone elses fault.

Did anyone actually bother to read the RBA's quarterly statement on monetary policy?

Better yet - even bother to read the paper when it was front page news?

I thought the RBA summed it up brilliantly. WE ARE AT FAULT. You can blame any figure head you like, but at the end of the day the blame lies with the 20 million people in this country and our obsession with debt and spending.

Do you honestly think bannanas have that much impact on a $610 billion economy? Puh-lease. Yes, they're in "the basket" and feed into CPI figures, but the underlying fact is that the economy is booming. We're fast approaching that production frontier.

How many people tapped into the equity of their home in the last 24 months? Come on now - be honest. You wanted that new XR6t... new hifi? TV? Extension?

How many people went into the bank and said "How much can we borrow??" instead of asking yourself "how much can we afford?" or better yet "how much can we afford if rates rise this year?". Of course when the mortgage defaults, it'll be "the bank's fault", right?? "They forced us to borrow that much". Typical lack of personal responsibility in the year 2006.

Front page of our local rag, Mr and Mrs Average complaining about the additional stress this places on their finances... perhaps Mr and Mrs Average should have thought about that before borrowing $400,000 and committing 50% of their pay to mortgage repayments???

We have borrowed to the bones of our asses and spent every penny of that debt. Anyone managed to save a decent amount of money in the past 24 months?

Do i think the last rise was needed? Yes!!!

OK, so remove bananas and petrol from the equation and you have 3% underlying. That's still at the higher end of the desirable range. And the fact you could remove petrol from the "basket" is ridiculous when its so systemic to our existance. Also remember that when we approach the production frontier, inflation starts to rise at an exponential rate. Hence the CPI figures that came out just before the last RBA meeting were such a shock.

The last tap of the brakes from the RBA did nothing. Unemployment continued to fall, people continued to spend, debt continued to pile up. The country needs to slow down. Personally, i think its probably a good thing for homeowners that petrol prices have been so high. Imagine what the target rate would be if you didnt have this "quasi" interest rate rise at the pumps. But even at $1.40 a litre, people bury their heads in the sand and keep spending spending spending. We dont get the message and then we cry foul when the decision is made for us.

PLEASE dont believe the claims being made that it's just some right-wing conspiracy. We NEED to slow this country down, or else you can count on the RBA doing it for you.

The market has priced in one more rate rise before the end of the year and i would tend to agree.

It's such a shame that something as beautiful as macroeconomics has such close ties to politics. It really is an amazing technical subject, it pains me to see it reduced to nothing more than an election issue. An opportunity to inform and discuss is thrown on to the same tawdry pile as broken promises and campaign budgets.

Happy to elaborate on any comments made.... i live and breath economics...

Do you wanna know what I think? 6% is still too high. The best interest rate is 0%. Yes 0.

See, interest is a form of usury (look that one up). Usury was outlawed in many countries but when private bankers took control of the central banks of the various nations of the world, they immediately repealed the usury prohibition laws.

As I posted earlier, inflation would be a non issue if our currency was backed by or pegged to some form of commodity. When the government (in the case of the US, the private Federal Reserve Bank) has the ability to print money ad infinitum, inflation is a foregone conclusion.

If anyone on this forum thinks that we are in a true free market economy, you are deluding yourselves. Manipulation happens on such a broad scale that it becomes accepted as the norm.

[max]

Originally Posted by Outbackjack

Can I come too. Some of the stuff I could , but cant, tell you would send you grey. I like prawns.

Cheers.

Sure we got to work on a date. Some of you boys are far away.....

[max]

Originally Posted by 4.9 EF Futura

Where did you get these figures?

My resources show that Iran produces less than 10% of the world's current daily oil production. Just over 6% in 2002. Obviously enough to disrupt the market, but no where near 30%.

Lol, do i get an invite to this dinner? I'll bring the wine... but think i would fear for my safety at such a function e

Yep. You'll be safe as a bank. In fact, I for one would like to endorse you as a future Federal Treasurer!!

[Outbackjack]

Its amazing how little people know about how their preciuos feul reaches them. By turning off the tap means the tap. The straight of Hormuz lies between Iran and Oman. Around 80% of the fuel that reaches the world market, that is sourced from the persion gulf, is transported via this straight. This accounts for about 30% of the worlds oil. Iran has threatened in the past to close this transportation route, their ability to do so is recognised by all the oil consuming nations of the world. Just the threat to do so will cause a spike in fuel costs.

[4.9 EF Futura]

Originally Posted by charles_wif_xf

Do you wanna know what I think? 6% is still too high. The best interest rate is 0%. Yes 0.

0% interest rates? Works great if you need to jump start the economy. See japan about half a decade ago.

Or are you suggesting thats what the interest rate would be under a commodity backed currency?

See, interest is a form of usury (look that one up). Usury was outlawed in many countries but when private bankers took control of the central banks of the various nations of the world, they immediately repealed the usury prohibition laws.

Having done a measly 4 years of banking at uni, i may have heard the term usury thrown around once or twice : Although in the modern context, it refers to exorbitant levels of interest and doesnt prohibit the charging of interest whatsoever. In fact, to the best of my knowledge... the charging of interest was never prohibited (altho is done so under a few religions) - it was the charging of "unlawful" levels of interest which was prohibited.

But this is where our friend the market comes into play as well. If CBA put its rates up 2%, independent of any other bank - what do you predict the outcome would be?

Ignore the fact that the RBA sets the playing field and you'll see once of the greatest examples of the invisible hand in the world of banking.

As I posted earlier, inflation would be a non issue if our currency was backed by or pegged to some form of commodity. When the government (in the case of the US, the private Federal Reserve Bank) has the ability to print money ad infinitum, inflation is a foregone conclusion.

Lol.

Firstly - perhaps you could give me a run down of how the old "gold economies" fell apart, seeing as bullion backed currency is "solid gold" in your books?? We never go to war, do we??

A gold economy still has interest rates and inflation. In fact, it was the dawn of gold-backed currency which led to central banks and the concept of monetary policy. Had to maintain the gold reserves at a target level.

Although i know this goes against the theories of gold standard advocates who seem to think having a currency backed by gold removes the possibilities of government intervention.

The PERCEIVED safety afforded by having a commodity-backed currency only protects the value of the currency from ARTIFICIAL inflation. Natural inflation - like we are seeing in the current economic environment - remains. All you get under a commodity backed currency is interest rates which are priced excessively for risk, because there's a chance the gold will walk out the door, never to be seen again.

Do you understand the concept of credit creation? This has nothing to do with printing money - it describes the manner in which a banking system CREATES money. Not just a face value - but true, underlying money. Do you also understand the impacts a gold-backed currency has on such a process? And what that would do to the economy?

I'd warn everyone to consider the arguments put forward by the gold advocacy very carefully. YES - the mint runs all day everyday printing money. What they dont tell you about is how much currency is stripped from circulation, and how much needs to be printed to support economic growth. Never let the rest of the facts get in the way of a good yarn tho

If anyone on this forum thinks that we are in a true free market economy, you are deluding yourselves. Manipulation happens on such a broad scale that it becomes accepted as the norm.

I dont think anyone would believe such a notion. If it were a true free market economy, regulators would not exist. Anyone who has even read the blurb of an economic textbook would know its described as a mixed economy. Let's face it... agency theory in the finance world would see the system come unstuck fairly quickly if it were true laissez-faire (i'll resist the temptation to direct you towards the dictionary, some might see that as being a little conceited).

OBJ - thanks for the clarification!

Max - dont think ive got the grin one requires to be federal treasurer. How could i run against a mug like this:



????

[max]

Originally Posted by Outbackjack

Can I come too. Some of the stuff I could , but cant, tell you would send you grey. I like prawns.

Cheers.

I like prawns too! You'll have to bring some along......

[Outbackjack]

Originally Posted by max

I like prawns too! You'll have to bring some along......

They are a tadd hard to get out here, but I will get some on the way......

Prawns go great with vodka, comrad!!! :

[max]

Originally Posted by Outbackjack

They are a tadd hard to get out here, but I will get some on the way......

Prawns go great with vodka, comrad!!! :

Da! Long live the revolution!

[max]

Originally Posted by 4.9 EF Futura

0% interest rates? Works great if you need to jump start the economy. See japan about half a decade ago.

Or are you suggesting thats what the interest rate would be under a commodity backed currency?



Having done a measly 4 years of banking at uni, i may have heard the term usury thrown around once or twice : Although in the modern context, it refers to exorbitant levels of interest and doesnt prohibit the charging of interest whatsoever. In fact, to the best of my knowledge... the charging of interest was never prohibited (altho is done so under a few religions) - it was the charging of "unlawful" levels of interest which was prohibited.

But this is where our friend the market comes into play as well. If CBA put its rates up 2%, independent of any other bank - what do you predict the outcome would be?

Ignore the fact that the RBA sets the playing field and you'll see once of the greatest examples of the invisible hand in the world of banking.



Lol.

Firstly - perhaps you could give me a run down of how the old "gold economies" fell apart, seeing as bullion backed currency is "solid gold" in your books?? We never go to war, do we??

A gold economy still has interest rates and inflation. In fact, it was the dawn of gold-backed currency which led to central banks and the concept of monetary policy. Had to maintain the gold reserves at a target level.

Although i know this goes against the theories of gold standard advocates who seem to think having a currency backed by gold removes the possibilities of government intervention.

The PERCEIVED safety afforded by having a commodity-backed currency only protects the value of the currency from ARTIFICIAL inflation. Natural inflation - like we are seeing in the current economic environment - remains. All you get under a commodity backed currency is interest rates which are priced excessively for risk, because there's a chance the gold will walk out the door, never to be seen again.

Do you understand the concept of credit creation? This has nothing to do with printing money - it describes the manner in which a banking system CREATES money. Not just a face value - but true, underlying money. Do you also understand the impacts a gold-backed currency has on such a process? And what that would do to the economy?

I'd warn everyone to consider the arguments put forward by the gold advocacy very carefully. YES - the mint runs all day everyday printing money. What they dont tell you about is how much currency is stripped from circulation, and how much needs to be printed to support economic growth. Never let the rest of the facts get in the way of a good yarn tho



I dont think anyone would believe such a notion. If it were a true free market economy, regulators would not exist. Anyone who has even read the blurb of an economic textbook would know its described as a mixed economy. Let's face it... agency theory in the finance world would see the system come unstuck fairly quickly if it were true laissez-faire (i'll resist the temptation to direct you towards the dictionary, some might see that as being a little conceited).

OBJ - thanks for the clarification!

Max - dont think ive got the grin one requires to be federal treasurer. How could i run against a mug like this:



????

Good old Wayne. He'll have his day!

[4.9 EF Futura]

Originally Posted by max

Good old Wayne. He'll have his day!

Such a shame we'll never see the economic marvels of a latham/swann double team

[charles_wif_xf]

Originally Posted by 4.9 EF Futura

0% interest rates? Works great if you need to jump start the economy. See japan about half a decade ago.

Or are you suggesting thats what the interest rate would be under a commodity backed currency?

No not at all. They are separate entities.

Originally Posted by 4.9 EF Futura

Having done a measly 4 years of banking at uni, i may have heard the term usury thrown around once or twice : Although in the modern context, it refers to exorbitant levels of interest and doesnt prohibit the charging of interest whatsoever. In fact, to the best of my knowledge... the charging of interest was never prohibited (altho is done so under a few religions) - it was the charging of "unlawful" levels of interest which was prohibited.

I do apologize for the "lookit up" remark. Sometimes I forget that there are articulate people using these forums.

The original meaning of usury was the charging of interest on a loan, but has changed over the years.

Originally Posted by 4.9 EF Futura

Firstly - perhaps you could give me a run down of how the old "gold economies" fell apart, seeing as bullion backed currency is "solid gold" in your books?? We never go to war, do we??

The so called "gold economies" failed due to deliberate sabotage by the bankers of the time and inflexibility of money supply due to the very limited availability of gold. A commodity backed currency (gold at the time) and the creation of credit don't mix too well.

Originally Posted by 4.9 EF Futura

A gold economy still has interest rates and inflation. In fact, it was the dawn of gold-backed currency which led to central banks and the concept of monetary policy. Had to maintain the gold reserves at a target level.

Exactly right EF; with a commodity backed currency, the private banks had no say in the issuance of currency or credit. Therefore, central banks were created and who runs and owns the central banks: the private banks.

Originally Posted by 4.9 EF Futura

The PERCEIVED safety afforded by having a commodity-backed currency only protects the value of the currency from ARTIFICIAL inflation. Natural inflation - like we are seeing in the current economic environment - remains. All you get under a commodity backed currency is interest rates which are priced excessively for risk, because there's a chance the gold will walk out the door, never to be seen again.

There is only one form of inflation and that is due to the use of fiat currency. That explains why we are paying more dollars for the same amount of oil. It is the fall in the value of the world's reserve currency, the US dollar, which has prompted the massive spikes, not that the oil is running out. For instance, BP shut down its Alaskan plant due to the main pipeline being corroded and needing urgent repair. Guess what, that pipeline has needed urgent repair for at least 10 years. Why choose now to fix it?

Originally Posted by 4.9 EF Futura

Do you understand the concept of credit creation? This has nothing to do with printing money - it describes the manner in which a banking system CREATES money. Not just a face value - but true, underlying money. Do you also understand the impacts a gold-backed currency has on such a process? And what that would do to the economy?

I understand it too well. Basically, most of the money in use is debt money. The use of gold as the commodity backing the currency restricts the ability to create credit money, due to the limited supply of gold.

As such, a currency should be backed by the economic output of the entire nation; that way, more money can be created as the economy grows, obviating the need to create debt money. Plus, such a system provides an incentive for people to work harder, smarter so as to be more productive. If anyone says that that is happening now, I'd love to see the evidence.

[4.9 EF Futura]

Charles its delightful to see a level headed approach to this topic. And that is said with 100% seriousness. Lol, usually see some "out there" concepts thrown in to the pro-gold currency debate

In particular, your last paragraph is something which is difficult, if not impossible to debate. However the shift away from debt-driven credit creation is a change of such systemic proportions i cant help but get a headache when considering the implications.

A clean slate in a country with hundreds of billions of dollars of personal debt is a big ask

I would disagree with your comments regarding the value of oil. Yes the value of US currency is way down, but the intrinsic value of oil is very high as a result of market forces (if you subscribe to market economy beliefs). But that's probably a dicussion for a different day and a different place.

Unfortunately market forces cant address the need for basic maintenance of an oil pipeline..... let's see smith explain that one hey?

Lol, might be an appropriate time to disclose that i work in the field of banking regulation

[MO]

OK I'm going to post.....4.9/charles great posts.......now to the serious business...max ...outback et al when are we going to have this dinner...I love seafood and a good chardy or merlot and have been known to have the odd vodka.

CASPER would love you to come to...thanks for keeping the finger off the lock.

A very informative thread and guess what guys no politics.

[Casper]

See, it is possible to hold rational and sensible debate about a political/economic issue without actually dropping to name calling and factional sledging.

Proud of you guys.


(but I'm still keeping an eye on it : )

[Outbackjack]

Originally Posted by Casper

See, it is possible to hold rational and sensible debate about a political/economic issue without actually dropping to name calling and factional sledging.

Jeeez mate are you sure????

Perhaps a location a little central to us all. I'll make the effort to travel, lets face it, I love driving the 8......

[ltd]

Didn't the Alaskan pipeline spring a leak?
Some really informative and well thought out posts here.
Guess we'll have to wait and see what OPEC has to say.
I believe it was in 2000 that they said that their target was for US$25.00 a barrel.
Must be loving it now

[Outbackjack]

The Clare valley is very nice this time of year, close to the vino sellers as well. Just a thought......