Covid 19 - - Page 498

**russellw** · 15-09-2021, 04:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Poetic Justice

Do you suppose we stay locked down for the next couple of years?

I'm going to answer that one by saying, of course not.

What I am saying is that easing restrictions too much based on 70% or 80% first dose only (as some States are proposing) is madness when the double dose rates are still below 50% in most states except the ACT.

In my view, if it needs until the end of October to get to 70% double-vaccinated before we open up gradually then that's what we need to do and even then with the understanding that 70% of those we are counting (16+ age group) is still only 66.4% of the eligible 12+ population and only 56.1% of the total population.

Poetic Justice · 15-09-2021, 04:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by russellw

In my view, if it needs until the end of October to get to 70% double-vaccinated before we open up gradually then that's what we need to do

That's the plan anyway, right?

Itsme · 15-09-2021, 04:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0

Anyone else finding the myriad of businesses and organisations openly supporting the covid vaccination program as a "way to get back to a normal life" a little grating, especially when, in all likelihood, all those businesses and organisations really care about is they stand to make more money once people are back out doing things (and spending their money) as they normally would?

Of course they want to make money; is it not the nature of any business to make more money as possible!
What is your point?

Itsme · 15-09-2021, 04:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0

No, not everyone. But I agree that the number who are over it is growing all the time.

I do wonder though, how 'over it' people will be when we open up again, hospitals fill with cases, reducing capacity for other medical services and reducing the number of medical staff available, and things like elective surgeries are impacted. When someone wants to see a doctor or get some medical advice for something that is annoying them or impacting upon their quality of life, and they can't that appointment for months, will they be over that too?

And that's without even taking into account the number of people who will pass away from the disease and the circle of influence on relatives and friends.

That is life and unfortunately we do not live in a perfect world. Think you will find most people are over it as it nearly two years of having our lives put on hold.
Most people know the risks involved and want to return to some normality.

tweeked · 15-09-2021, 04:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by russellw

The underlying data looks good to me as a lot of what they reference comes form the excellent report from the AIHW.

The highlight for me:

The Grattan Institute has suggested lifting lockdowns only when 80 per cent of the entire population has been double vaccinated (not 70-80 per cent of people aged 16+ as the NSW and national plans envisage, which amounts to 56-64 per cent of the population).
Grattan believes its plan would cost 2,000-3,000 lives per year; a cost it believes the public would accept.

I've been saying that for awhile and their 2-3k number aligns pretty much with what we'd see if we could mirror the Israeli experience where my models show about 2,868 deaths in the first year.

At the UK level (90% of 16+ but only 66.67% of whole population) it wouldn't be sustainable as I said yesterday, with my model showing something like 13k deaths in the first year.

The message is simple from my POV. Open too early and accept the high case and mortality numbers or wait until vaccination levels are higher although I don't see that we could ever reach 80% of whole population when we have some 4M (or 15%) of the population under 12 years of age so that would mean that only 5% of the 12+ age group would be able to not get vaccinated.

The issue I have with The Grattan modelling is it seems to not take into account IF we can even reach 80%. Portugal is currently the only sizeable country in the entire world to get there - at 81%

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

I don't think we will ever get to 80% of the entire country. We have way too much youtube and facebook that people believe over doctors to get there. Grattan needs to study that. Most countries have got to 60% reasonably quickly then start to stall from there. Even poster child Israel is less than 70% fully vac'ed

We need to bulk up our hospitals, and then it is good luck to those who think they will beat it without a vacc. Most will, but waiting for an unattainable target cannot be the answer. All in my humble opinion of course.

PooDog · 15-09-2021, 05:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tweeked

The issue I have with The Grattan modelling is it seems to not take into account IF we can even reach 80%. Portugal is currently the only sizeable country in the entire world to get there - at 81%

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

I don't think we will ever get to 80% of the entire country. We have way too much youtube and facebook that people believe over doctors to get there. Grattan needs to study that. Most countries have got to 60% reasonably quickly then start to stall from there. Even poster child Israel is less than 70% fully vac'ed

We need to bulk up our hospitals, and then it is good luck to those who think they will beat it without a vacc. Most will, but waiting for an unattainable target cannot be the answer. All in my humble opinion of course.

Totally agree this is the problem to many conspiracy theories about the vaccine America will struggle because there's so many religious groups that believe the vaccine is the devil trying to infect them and all sorts of weird sh$t

MITCHAY · 15-09-2021, 06:01 PM

Speaking vaccine rates. As has been mentioned ACT is ahead on double doses rate and will get to 70% fairly soon.

The CM has basically said we won't ease restrictions until national rate hits the 70-80% as per plan. It will be reconsidered depending on what the lag is because even we won't cop that **** for long.

Personally think maybe one option would be is once a individual state/territory is in that range then we should divert supply to those behind.

No use being ahead a few weeks (yes obviously health wise it is good) and still locked down because of other rates are not there yet though our supply here alone is not going to make much difference.

Falcon SXR8 · 15-09-2021, 07:32 PM

Had my second shot yesterday, something i noticed was the lack of people for their second jab. I questioned the ladies there and they confirmed it was for second jabs only and they had only put through 200 or so whereas they had done 700 for the initial shot.

I wonder how many are backing out on the second jab because the first one knocked them around a fair bit.

**DJR-351** · 15-09-2021, 07:40 PM

Metdevil · 15-09-2021, 07:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Falcon SXR8

Had my second shot yesterday, something i noticed was the lack of people for their second jab. I questioned the ladies there and they confirmed it was for second jabs only and they had only put through 200 or so whereas they had done 700 for the initial shot.

I wonder how many are backing out on the second jab because the first one knocked them around a fair bit.

I solved this problem myself by getting the second jab first :p

b0son · 15-09-2021, 08:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trevor 57

part of the contract under which she does business - she does have the option of banning him and that option depends on how he behaves next time and that will determine what happens next

whatever contract she signs, can't take away *your* rights. you are free to ban him.

b0son · 15-09-2021, 08:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slowsnake

Non smokers get lung cancer, not sure what percentile,

7-fold higher risk smokers vs non-smokers.

I agree that I think it's rich for the government to slug smokers such a massive amount, when if it's truly that risky, they should just ban cigarettes altogether. That said, when I checked maybe 10 years ago, the excise didnt recoup the health spend on smokers, so it could arguably be even higher.

Metdevil · 15-09-2021, 09:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by b0son

7-fold higher risk smokers vs non-smokers.

I agree that I think it's rich for the government to slug smokers such a massive amount, when if it's truly that risky, they should just ban cigarettes altogether. That said, when I checked maybe 10 years ago, the excise didnt recoup the health spend on smokers, so it could arguably be even higher.

I don't know if the plan is to ban altogether, but NZ there's a plan to 'make NZ smokefree by 2025'. I don't think they're on track for 2025, but in the last 10 years, they haven't given up the plan for it entirely, so they must be dedicated to it.
Will be interesting to see if they do choose to start banning smoking products closer to the deadline.

slowsnake · 15-09-2021, 10:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Metdevil

I solved this problem myself by getting the second jab first :p

Mmmm, I might get the 3rd jab last then, that'll confuse everyone....

Cheers Billy

slowsnake · 15-09-2021, 10:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by b0son

7-fold higher risk smokers vs non-smokers.

I agree that I think it's rich for the government to slug smokers such a massive amount, when if it's truly that risky, they should just ban cigarettes altogether. That said, when I checked maybe 10 years ago, the excise didnt recoup the health spend on smokers, so it could arguably be even higher.

Could you work out what percentage of PAYE workers income tax is used for health, beside the Medicare levy?

Cheers Billy

slowsnake · 15-09-2021, 10:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Metdevil

I don't know if the plan is to ban altogether, but NZ there's a plan to 'make NZ smokefree by 2025'. I don't think they're on track for 2025, but in the last 10 years, they haven't given up the plan for it entirely, so they must be dedicated to it.
Will be interesting to see if they do choose to start banning smoking products closer to the deadline.

Do you know when they plan to ban alcohol too!.....and transfat laden junk food!.....and sugary, syrupy soft drinks too, they take a terrible toll on personal health, and together cost us taxpayers more to repair overall than a smokers pulmonary system ever would!.....

I would sooner have a smoking neurosurgeon operate on me than a closet or recovering alcoholic!.....

Cheers Billy

Jack91 · 15-09-2021, 11:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

Won’t Jack91 be thrilled.

No effect on me mate, I'm both essential and antisocial!

Metdevil · 15-09-2021, 11:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slowsnake

Do you know when they plan to ban alcohol too!.....and transfat laden junk food!.....and sugary, syrupy soft drinks too, they take a terrible toll on personal health, and together cost us taxpayers more to repair overall than a smokers pulmonary system ever would!.....

I would sooner have a smoking neurosurgeon operate on me than a closet or recovering alcoholic!.....

Cheers Billy

Hopefully soon. The sooner we can have all our dietary needs compressed into a single, flavourless, MRE the better.

Jack91 · 15-09-2021, 11:32 PM

Had to have a difficult discussion with a bloke we just rehired a month ago. I've known his stance on the Vax and conspiracies for ages, but I didn't expect the building and construction industry to be leaning on the health Act to force tradies to get vaxxed.
It seems as though they finally cottoned on to how good construction had it the whole time. We're now seeing worksafe site inspections at most of our jobs, big and small, where they've never been before. To enforce the covid safe stuff and try to bust up the "covid Marshall" hack that every contractor utilised.
If you aren't aware, builders are giving us anywhere from 2 days out to a month to provide proof of site guys having at least one shot. Pretty tall order and not really fair when the bracket most of us are in (30's) only opened up a few weeks ago and instantly booked out for months.

Trevor 57 · 16-09-2021, 05:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by b0son

whatever contract she signs, can't take away *your* rights. you are free to ban him.

I have already said that = move on

xxx000 · 16-09-2021, 09:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Falcon SXR8

Had my second shot yesterday, something i noticed was the lack of people for their second jab. I questioned the ladies there and they confirmed it was for second jabs only and they had only put through 200 or so whereas they had done 700 for the initial shot.

I wonder how many are backing out on the second jab because the first one knocked them around a fair bit.

This may only be due to the gap between the 1st and 2nd doses and so many only recently getting their 1st.
Give it a few more weeks and they may be flat out giving those 2nd doses

**FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0** · 16-09-2021, 10:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Poetic Justice

Do you suppose we stay locked down for the next couple of years?

No, not at all.

Like Russ has responded with, it's getting the balance right that is the important part. Open too early and you see our health care systems flooded with covid patients. That will then have flow-on effect to anyone who has a need to make use of the health system; not just those who contract covid. Open too late and you have both fiscal and human impacts.

My concern is the pressure to open up as soon as possible and the view that we should be getting back to life as 'normal' (not picking on anyone here in these threads by using these terms, just using the generic terms I hear about he place and in the media). Life after covid is never going to be the same as it was pre covid, until such time as a cure is found, exactly as boss has pointed out.

I understand the urge people have to have our lives go back to the way they were before covid came into play, but the point at which we do that will have a lasting effect. we need to get that right and, perhaps, resist that urge just a little longer so that the impacts aren't as severe as they could be.

Our slow vaccination take-up (in comparison to other countries in the world) gives us one advantage; we have the opportunity to observe what is happening elsewhere and learning from that. Looking at countries like Israel and Singapore, for example, we can learn that removing all restrictions, particularly with the delta strain, does see that the health system is adversely impacted and that restrictions are being re-introduced in an effort to reduce that impact. These countries may not be a direct comparison for us, but we should, and can, still learn from their experience before we go down the same path.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

We aren't going to eliminate it, that ship has sailed. If anything it's going to spread more once the borders open up. It's inevitable. We can't stop it. Even if we had 100% vaccination rates. People still get it and spread it, and some people will still get sick and die from it. We just have to live with it now, it's never going away. Not unless they can find a proper cure.

I think we could still eliminate it, but the cost (both fiscal and human (ie emotional and psychological)) is probably going to be higher than opening up in a controlled and cautious fashion.

Quote:

Originally Posted by tweeked

We need to bulk up our hospitals,

To add this comment to the above comment from boss, I agree that we will need to bulk up our medical systems to cope with the everyday additional load from covid. As has been pointed out, even with 100% of the population vaccinated, there will still be additional load on our health system, something they are not currently structured for. But that building up is going to take some time to achieve. Most likely years. In the meantime, there will be impacts upon other services, because the resources have to come from a constrained pool.

And I'm not sure that all of those calling for life to go back to normal appreciate that there will be an impact for quite some time to come.

I can see that we will be living with mask use (in high risk environments) and density limits for quite some time after we achieve the 70% fully vaccinated goal. Again, this will be about trying to limit the additional load on the health system.

I see this morning that the Victorian AMA are calling for restrictions to remain in place for two weeks after the 80%of those over 12 have been vaccinated as they are concerned that doing so earlier will further strain the health care system.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Itsme

Of course they want to make money; is it not the nature of any business to make more money as possible!
What is your point?

I was asking if anyone else was finding the continued use of 'get vaccinated so life can go back to normal' by businesses, using social license as a veil for increasing profits, as a bit grating. That was all. No 'point' to it really.

T3rminator · 16-09-2021, 10:11 AM

Vic should be hitting 70% first dose today. If Vic Gov are true to their words, "restrictions not need to be applied for a moment longer than they need to"...then they will ease up what they promised, today, not Sunday.

Lets see....

**GO FURTHER** · 16-09-2021, 10:45 AM

If you have been wondering what happened to the Flu in Australia during the Covid Pandemic and that it has virtually disappeared from our lives, you would not be wrong.

This year, to August 29th, only 484 cases were recorded and zero deaths, compared to 313,085 cases in 2019 for the full year.

Covid restrictions and the closing of our international border are said to be the main reason.

The Flu in Australia versus pre-pandemic...

tweeked · 16-09-2021, 11:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GO FURTHER

If you have been wondering what happened to the Flu in Australia during the Covid Pandemic and that it has virtually disappeared from our lives, you would not be wrong.

This year, to August 29th, only 484 cases were recorded and zero deaths, compared to 313,085 cases in 2019 for the full year.

Covid restrictions and the closing of our international border are said to be the main reason.

The Flu in Australia versus pre-pandemic...

image

image

That is amazing.......with getting a covid shots I missed my flu vacc this year. I don't think it mattered much!!!!

Poetic Justice · 16-09-2021, 11:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Vic should be hitting 70% first dose today. If Vic Gov are true to their words, "restrictions not need to be applied for a moment longer than they need to"...then they will ease up what they promised, today, not Sunday.

Lets see....

Sunday is supposed to be about the plan for the future at higher vax rates - the 70% first jab changes should be separate to that

**russellw** · 16-09-2021, 12:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Vic should be hitting 70% first dose today. If Vic Gov are true to their words, "restrictions not need to be applied for a moment longer than they need to"...then they will ease up what they promised, today, not Sunday.

Lets see....

70% first dose is about as useless as a one-armed paper hanger frankly and if there is any easing of restrictions they should be minor at best. Anyone expecting more is (to quote Darrly Kerrigan) .. dreaming.

**russellw** · 16-09-2021, 12:30 PM

NSW/VIC

NSW records 1,351 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 1.0119 (from 0.9910) while the actual line is now level with the predictive trend line and based on the 4th order polynomial, that trend line now has a downward curve.

VIC records 514 cases in the current period (another record for this outbreak) and the 10-day average growth rate decreases slightly to 1.0993 (from 1.1123) while the actual line is back level with the predictive trend line.

T3rminator · 16-09-2021, 12:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by russellw

70% first dose is about as useless as a one-armed paper hanger frankly and if there is any easing of restrictions they should be minor at best. Anyone expecting more is (to quote Darrly Kerrigan) .. dreaming.

haha haven't heard of that analogy before. Given the way things are going, I'll take the 10kms. Would love to see some movement stats as I think this rule has been largely ignored anyways. As karen from brighton once said "I've done just about every park and track in this area."

**Polyal** · 16-09-2021, 12:43 PM

Frankly we need to get the second jabs done in the right time and IMO the conversation needs to be focus on making sure as many people as possible can see their family for Christmas (or sooner).