Covid 19 -

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
I'll now be reporting this weekly.
NSW Predictive Trend



VIC Predictive Trend



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th.



As it was the end of our week yesterday, here are the weekly case numbers with NSW having 15,405 more cases than Victoria last week while Victoria recorded 3,772 less cases than the previous week; NSW recorded 8,554 less; Queensland 4,773 less; WA 1,357 less and SA 962 less. The week totalled 64,703 cases, a 23.9% decrease on last week.

.. trends over the last 3 months:

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT September 7th 2022.

9,960 new cases for Australia and 62 deaths so the CMR is 0.141% (é).

NZ reported 1,898 cases and 8 deaths for a CMR of 0.159% (é).

129,896 new cases in the USA yesterday and 664 deaths sees CMR at 1.109 (ê).

Other notable points:
None.

No countries recorded a new high; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and none drop below.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT September 8th 2022.

9,121 new cases for Australia and 74 deaths so the CMR is 0.141% (-).

NZ reported 1,723 cases and 9 deaths for a CMR of 0.159% (-).

93,692 new cases in the USA yesterday and 690 deaths sees CMR at 1.109 (-).

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 612M;
North America passes 115M cases;
Italy passes 22M cases;

No countries recorded a new high; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and none drop below.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT September 9th 2022.

7,607 new cases for Australia and 133 deaths so the CMR is 0.143% (é).

NZ reported 1,538 cases and 9 deaths for a CMR of 0.159% (-).

The UK reported 32,726 cases and 784 deaths this week for a CMR of 0.803% (é).

62,875 new cases in the USA yesterday and 521 deaths sees CMR at 1.109 (-).

Other notable points:
Europe passes 223M cases;
Asia passes 186M cases;
USA passes 97M cases;

No countries recorded a new high; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and none drop below

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT September 10th 2022.

1,718 new cases for Australia and 5 deaths so the CMR is 0.143% (-).

NZ reported 1,470 cases and 7 deaths for a CMR of 0.161% (é).

91,770 new cases in the USA yesterday and 550 deaths sees CMR at 1.108 (ê).

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 613M;

No countries recorded a new high; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and none drop below.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT September 11th 2022.

1,364 new cases for Australia and 0 deaths so the CMR is 0.143% (-).

NZ reported 971 cases and 6 deaths for a CMR of 0.161% (-).

19,106 new cases in the USA yesterday and 88 deaths sees CMR at 1.108 (-).

Other notable points:
Russia and Japan pass 20M cases;
South Korea passes 24M cases;

No countries recorded a new high; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and none drop below.

[Citroënbender]

State-by-state reporting is becoming increasingly scrambled, I note the Covidlive website has six deaths logged for Queensland today, none for NSW and no data for other jurisdictions.

Also related, interesting to note the Royal funerary proceedings to date; very little mask wearing by those on either side (public, and the Royal camp/entourage).

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

State-by-state reporting is becoming increasingly scrambled, I note the Covidlive website has six deaths logged for Queensland today, none for NSW and no data for other jurisdictions.

Also related, interesting to note the Royal funerary proceedings to date; very little mask wearing by those on either side (public, and the Royal camp/entourage).

I think NSW went to weekly updates a few weeks ago. We are starting to move towards normality.

It will be interesting to see how long before the Covid situation is changed from Pandemic to Endemic.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT September 12th 2022.

4,393 new cases for Australia and 6 deaths so the CMR is 0.143% (-).

NZ reported 1,229 cases and 6 deaths for a CMR of 0.161% (-).

53,041 new cases in the USA yesterday and 296 deaths sees CMR at 1.108 (-).

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 614M;

No countries recorded a new high; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while Chile, Bolivia, Peru and Ecuador drop below.

Global case numbers are down again to 3,935,775 this week compared to the 4,567,959 last week and the number of deaths also fell slightly from 15,586 last week to 15,658 this week.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT September 13th 2022.

1,801 new cases for Australia and 25 deaths so the CMR is 0.143% (-).

NZ reported 2,012 cases and 46 deaths for a CMR of 0.164% (é).

29,918 new cases in the USA yesterday and 101 deaths sees CMR at 1.107 (ê).

Other notable points:
None

No countries recorded a new high; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

Slovenia moves above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while Chile, Bolivia, Peru and Ecuador drop below.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT September 14th 2022.

115,355 new cases in the USA yesterday and 1,024 deaths sees CMR at 1.107 (-).

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 615M;
Asia passes 187M cases;

No countries recorded a new high; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

Slovenia moves above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while and none drop below.

[MITCHAY]

I tested positive on RAT this evening so in iso now. Mild symptoms so far and hopefully that is all.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT September 14th 2022.

1,796 new cases for Australia and 17 deaths so the CMR is 0.143% (-).

105,133 new cases in the USA yesterday and 620 deaths sees CMR at 1.107 (-).

Other notable points:
Europe passes 224M cases;

No countries recorded a new high; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while and none drop below.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
Please note that as of the 16th September the numbers are now reported weekly and all the charts have been changed to that period of time.

NSW Predictive Trend



VIC Predictive Trend



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



As it was the end of the reporting week yesterday, here are the weekly case numbers with NSW having 10,623 more cases than Victoria last week while Victoria recorded 2,259 less cases than the previous week; NSW recorded 8,905 less; Queensland 1,249 less; WA 1,461 less and SA 117 less. The week totalled 52,430 cases, a 19% decrease on last week.

.. trends over the last 3 months:

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT September 16th 2022.

31,321 new cases for Australia and 270 deaths this week so the CMR is 0.145% (é).

The UK reported 30,787 cases and 458 deaths this week for a CMR of 0.803% (-).

52,143 new cases in the USA yesterday and 487 deaths sees CMR at 1.106 (ê).

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 616M;


No countries recorded a new high; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while and none drop below.

Global case numbers are down again to 3,346,439 this week compared to the 3,935,775 last week and the number of deaths also fell slightly from 15,658 last week to 15,333 this week.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT week ending September 23rd 2022.


35,643 new cases for Australia and 147 deaths this week so the CMR is 0.146% (é).
NZ reported 7,569 cases and 27 deaths for a CMR of 0.164% (-).
The UK reported 36,647 cases and 435 deaths this week for a CMR of 0.804% (é).
394,108 new cases in the USA this week and 2,888 deaths sees CMR at 1.105 (ê).

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 619M;
Europe passes 225M cases;
Asia passes 188M cases;
South America passes 64M cases;
France passes 35M cases;
Taiwan passes 6M cases;

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while South Korea drops below.

[russellw]

Australia

Please note that as of the 16th September the numbers are now reported weekly and all the charts have been changed to that period of time.

NSW Predictive Trend



VIC Predictive Trend



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



As it was the end of the reporting week yesterday, here are the weekly case numbers with NSW having 3,977 more cases than Victoria last week while Victoria recorded 2,892 less cases than the previous week; NSW recorded 3,059 less; Queensland 843 less; WA 1,086 less and SA 594 less. The week totalled 43,820 cases, a 16.4% decrease on last week.

.. trends over the last 3 months:

[russellw]

Global case numbers are down again to 3,190,721 this week compared to the 3,346,439 last week and the number of deaths rose slightly from 15,333 last week to 15,670 this week.

[russellw]

Global (figures up to 24/09/22)

During the last month, global CMR's have mostly been dropping with the global average now at 1.055% compared to 1.1062% in the previous period and 2.047% a year ago today. Notably; Australia, Austria, Canada, Colombia, Denmark, Finland, Iran, Israel, New Zealand, Paraguay, Philippines, Spain, Sweden, Thailand and the United Kingdom all saw CMR rise.

Case numbers decrease with 14.61M in this period compared to 19.9M in the previous period with 52,834 deaths in the last period for a higher CMR of 0.362% on an unadjusted basis.

Overall the increase in cases numbers was 2.4% and the variance in the number of deaths only 0.81%.

Countries (with >100k cases) that were above 5% growth for the month rate are Taiwan (+16.4%); Hong Kong (+13.6%); Japan (+13.4%); Lithuania (+10.8%);South Korea (+6.9%);Russia (+6.7%); El Salvador (+5.4%)

Very few countries saw their mortalities increase by much with Iceland (+16.0%); Japan (+13.0%); Taiwan (+9.1%); Australia (+8.0%); New Zealand (+7.3%); Austria (+6.4%); Finland (+5.9%) and South Korea (+5.8%) the only significant growth amongst countries with >100k cases.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
Please note that as of the 16th September the numbers are now reported weekly and all the charts have been changed to that period of time.

NSW Predictive Trend



VIC Predictive Trend



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



As it was the end of the reporting week yesterday, here are the weekly case numbers with NSW having 3,810 more cases than Victoria last week while Victoria recorded 902 less cases than the previous week; NSW recorded 1,578 less; Queensland 1,105 less; WA 393 less while New Zealand (+2,213) and SA (+67) went the other way. The week totalled 39,564 cases, a 9.7% decrease on last week.

.. trends over the last 3 months:

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

I see National Cabinet has determined that mandatory isolation for a covid case will no longer be required as of a couple of weeks time.

The onus for management of infectious cases now moves to the individual, as it does for colds, etc.

A major step towards the normalisation of the whole covid pandemic.

Importantly, the chief medical officer says it marks the likely end of the emergency pandemic response.

A significant milestone in the pandemic.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT week ending September 30th 2022.


24,776 new cases for Australia and 184 deaths this week so the CMR is 0.147% (é).
NZ reported 9,782 cases and 50 deaths for a CMR of 0.166% (é).
The UK reported 50,903 cases and 398 deaths this week for a CMR of 0.804% (-).
355,605 new cases in the USA this week and 3,338 deaths sees CMR at 1.104 (ê).

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 622M;
Europe passes 227M cases;
North America passes 116M cases;
Asia passes 189M cases;
USA passes 98M cases;
Japan passes 21M cases;
Ecuador passes 1M cases.
Austria moves above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while Japan drops below.

Global case numbers are down again to 3,115,409 this week compared to the 3,190,721 last week and the number of deaths fell slightly from 15,670 last week to 15,641 this week.

[russellw]

Here are some graphs we haven't looked at for a long time.

First up the CMR by Continent. We last looked at this in February so I've put those figures in brackets. The current global average is 1.051% (1.42) with South America the worst at 2.07% (2.39), followed by Africa with 2.04% (2.16) and North America with 1.32% (1.47) all above the global average. The lowest is Oceania with 0.17% (0.23) followed by Asia with 0.78% (1.23) and Europe with 0.84% (1.16).



Individual country CMR which we last looked at in December 2021. The current global average is 1.051% (1.977) and the worst country is still Peru with 5.226% although that's an improvement on the 8.971% at the end of 2021. Countries below the global average include Spain with 0.851% (1.696); the UK with 0.804% (1.181); Italy with 0.786% (2.617) and Australia with 0.349% (0.936). Countries still above include the USA with 1.105% (1.616); Russia with 1.841% (2.875) and Brazil with 1.977% (2.780).



Finally, mortalities per 100k of population which is the only one of these charts not to be impacted by case number reporting. We also looked at this back in February when the global average was 103.8 and it has since increased to 116.8 as you'd expect.

Again, the worst country is Peru with 864 (828) followed by the USA with 519 (450); Italy with 480 (408); Brazil with 414 (384); the UK with 365 (306) and Russia with an understated 331 (289). Australia is near the bottom with 84 (25) while India has supposedly moved to the bottom with 52 (50).

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
Please note that as of the 16th September the numbers are now reported weekly and all the charts have been changed to that period of time.

NSW Predictive Trend



VIC Predictive Trend



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



As it was the end of the reporting week yesterday, here are the weekly case numbers with NSW having 3,134 more cases than Victoria last week while Victoria recorded 228 less cases than the previous week; NSW recorded 1,825 less; Queensland 91 less; WA 39 less and SA 384 less while New Zealand (+167) went the other way. The week totalled 36,790 cases, a 7.0% decrease on last week.

.. trends over the last 3 months:

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT week ending October 7th 2022.


36,790 new cases for Australia and 190 deaths this week so the CMR is 0.149% (é).
NZ reported 9,949 cases and 33 deaths for a CMR of 0.167% (é).
The UK reported a higher 62,418 cases and higher 571 deaths this week for a CMR of 0.804% (-).
286,093 new cases in the USA this week and 2,808 deaths sees CMR at 1.104 (-).

Other notable points:Global cases pass 625M;
Global deaths pass 6.55M, the last 50k in 30 days;
Europe passes 229M cases;
Asia passes 190M cases;
Russia passes 21M cases;
Germanymoves above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period whileRussia drops below.

Global case numbers are down again to 2,949,342 this week compared to the 3,115,409 last week and the number of deaths fell from an amended 9,621 last week to 9,277 this week.

[4vxc]

Just thought I'd put my experience in.
I caught covid about 5 week's ago from the boss at work who knew he'd been exposed to it, he also knows about my past stage 3 cancer but didn't worry about that.
I got symptoms about 3 days later then went down hill quickly, ended up off work for 3 weeks.
I've gone back on reduced hours
My wife also caught it and had 2 weeks off work, she is immune compromised due to arthritis medication
We didn't qualify for the covid payments because of having over 10k in liquid assets
We both got put on the anti viral medicine but are still struggling.
I've lost my energy which is really bad timing as I've got my old Ford in pieces
Wife has a ridiculous cough she can't get rid of
So while it might be back to normal for most for some it's still very real unfortunately, so it ****es me off a little when I hear people saying covid is over, nothing too worry about now
Rant over

[Itsme]

Originally Posted by 4vxc

Just thought I'd put my experience in.
I caught covid about 5 week's ago from the boss at work who knew he'd been exposed to it, he also knows about my past stage 3 cancer but didn't worry about that.
I got symptoms about 3 days later then went down hill quickly, ended up off work for 3 weeks.
I've gone back on reduced hours
My wife also caught it and had 2 weeks off work, she is immune compromised due to arthritis medication
We didn't qualify for the covid payments because of having over 10k in liquid assets
We both got put on the anti viral medicine but are still struggling.
I've lost my energy which is really bad timing as I've got my old Ford in pieces
Wife has a ridiculous cough she can't get rid of
So while it might be back to normal for most for some it's still very real unfortunately, so it ****es me off a little when I hear people saying covid is over, nothing too worry about now
Rant over

Covid will never be over as it will be around with us for years to come, the last few years just bought time to develop immunization for the population and people will have to be cautious & vigilant.
To be honest I think your boss is an A.s.s for his attitude towards you but unfortunately this is the state of the world these days where most people only care of themselves.
Wish you and your wife a speedy recovery.

Cheers

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Originally Posted by Itsme

Covid will never be over as it will be around with us for years to come, the last few years just bought time to develop immunization for the population and people will have to be cautious & vigilant.
To be honest I think your boss is an A.s.s for his attitude towards you but unfortunately this is the state of the world these days where most people only care of themselves.
Wish you and your wife a speedy recovery.

Cheers

Spot on It's Me. I hope 4vxc wasn't aiming the "it's over, nothing to worry about" comment at me re my earlier post. That wasn't what I was trying to say. Whilst the pandemic response may be over, the resolution from our government just puts the covid response into the same, or similar, basket to any other disease out there. It will still impact on people. 4vxc's experience is an example of just that.

All the best, 4vxc, I hope both you and your wife recover soon.

[4vxc]

Originally Posted by FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0

Spot on It's Me. I hope 4vxc wasn't aiming the "it's over, nothing to worry about" comment at me re my earlier post. That wasn't what I was trying to say. Whilst the pandemic response may be over, the resolution from our government just puts the covid response into the same, or similar, basket to any other disease out there. It will still impact on people. 4vxc's experience is an example of just that.

All the best, 4vxc, I hope both you and your wife recover soon.

no mate not aimed towards you in any way, all good

[4vxc]

Originally Posted by Itsme

Covid will never be over as it will be around with us for years to come, the last few years just bought time to develop immunization for the population and people will have to be cautious & vigilant.
To be honest I think your boss is an A.s.s for his attitude towards you but unfortunately this is the state of the world these days where most people only care of themselves.
Wish you and your wife a speedy recovery.

Cheers

The guy I work for is the most selfish, self centred person I've ever known in my life, his sense of self importance is incredible and has absolutely no concern for anyone even his family
Also takes racism to a new level I haven't seen before and I've been around for a while, he tells stories about his past in another country which seem hard to believe
Naturally he only had very mild symptoms from covid