Covid 19 -

[russellw]

Originally Posted by b0son

You're fitting a single trend to two seperate outbreaks. Maybe its time to trim off the data before November?

Even if I only count the data for December it still looks like this ...



At some point I will probably split out this 'current' outbreak into a new one.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT December 30th 2021.

21,264 new cases for Australia (a new record) and 15 deaths so the CMR is 0.613%.

NZ reported 71 cases and 0 deaths for a CMR of 0.363%.

The UK recorded 188,124 cases and 332 deaths for a CMR of 1.164%.

438,383 new cases in the USA yesterday (a new record) and 2,308 deaths sees CMR at 1.555%.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 286M, the last 2M in 1 day;
Global cases set a new daily high of 1,802,543;
Europe sets a new daily high with 969,054 cases;
North America sets a new daily high with 574,538 cases;
Europe passes 86M cases;
North America passes 65M cases;

Togo (491);
Cabo Verde (791);
Aruba (698);
Iceland (768);
Gabon (1,163);
Luxembourg (1,230);
Malta (1,353);
Ivory Coast (1,578) - the previous high (767) on 25/3/21;
Montenegro (1,747);
Uganda (1,809) - the previous high (1,735) on 12/6/21;
Cyprus (3,851);
Mozambique (4,947);
Bolivia (6,149);
Zambia (5,555);
Finland (9,619);
Switzerland (11,778);
Ireland (20,554);
Australia (21,264);
Canada (27,995);
Portugal (28,659);
Greece (35,580);
Argentina (50,506);
Italy (126,888) - 70k above the previous high;
Spain (161,688) - 60k above the previous high;
France (206,543) - ~100k above the previous high; and
the USA (531,636)

.... recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

Estonia, Lebanon Tunisia, Mauritania and Luxembourg move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and none drop below.

[russellw]

Australia
NSW records 22,577 cases in the current period (another new record) and the 10-day average growth rate decreases slightly to 1.2474 (from 1.2485) while the actual line is almost vertical and well above the predictive trend line.



VIC records 7,442 cases in the current period (also a record high) and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 1.1910 (from 1.1860) while the actual line is now well above the predictive trend.



Queensland (3,118), SA (2,093), the ACT (462), NT (61) and Tasmania (137) all set new daily highs again yesterday (31/12).

[GO FURTHER]

Putting our current Australian Covid cases into perspective...

New data shows Australia leading the world in one grim Covid-19 stat amid the current Omicron outbreak sweeping the globe as at 30th December.

Australia sees biggest increase in average daily Covid-19 cases compared with prior peak.





https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/12/30/world/covid-cases-omicron

[b0son]

Originally Posted by russellw

Australia
NSW records 25,777 cases in the current period

22,577 ... typo?

Originally Posted by b0son

... typo?

Nope, that's how many new cases in NSW today.
edit: oh.. i see.. an extra couple hundred

[russellw]

Originally Posted by b0son

22,577 ... typo?

Fixed - I'll fix the graph tomorrow.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT December 31st 2021.

32,879 new cases for Australia (a new record) and 16 deaths so the CMR is 0.567%. 2021 finishes with 371,259 cases and 1,322 deaths for an overall CMR of 0.356% - much better than the 2020 figure of 1.427%.

NZ reported 61 cases and 0 deaths for a CMR of 0.361%.

The UK recorded 188,836 cases and 203 deaths for a CMR of 1.149%.

576,118 new cases in the USA yesterday (a new record) and 1,816 deaths sees CMR at 1.531%.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 288M, the last 2M in 1 day;
Global deaths pass 5.45M, the last 100k in 8 days;
North America sets a new daily high with 672,651 cases;
Europe passes 87M cases;
Italy passes 6M cases;

San Marino (547);
Andorra (618);
Aruba (742);
Togo (747);
Cabo Verde (994);
Luxembourg (1,280);
Malta (1,403);
Ivory Coast (2,858);
Cyprus (5,048);
Bolivia (7,980);
Finland (11,334);
Australia (32,879);
Canada (37,358) - 10k more than yesterday;
Portugal (30,829);
Greece (40,560);
Italy (144,243);
France (223,200); and
the USA (576,118)

.... recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

Panama, Ecuador, the UAE and the Dominican Republic move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and none drop below.

[russellw]

Much as I'd like to post the annual numbers, a handful of countries haven't yet reported their last day of 2021 and while most of them will be small, there's probably still ~50k cases amongst them.

[russellw]

What I can update is the last half month of global data where we can see which countries have been doing it tough. During this period, global case numbers have risen by 5.5% while deaths have risen 2.1% and the global CMR has dropped from 1.964% to 1.891% with most countries CMR dropping.

Percentage wise, here are the countries with >10% growth in the last 15 days:

Andorra (15.2%)
Angola (19.8%)
Aruba (18.6%)
Australia (41.2%)
British Virgin islands (16.3%)
Burundi (23.7%)
Canada (15.4%)
Channel Islands (21.7%)
Comoros (29.8%)
Costa Rica (20.5%)
Curaçao (14.9%)
Cyprus (14.7%)
Denmark (17.5%)
DRC (20%)
Eswatini (17.2%)
Ethiopia (11.1%)
Faeroe Islands (22.3%)
Finland (20.5%)
France (16.4%)
Gibraltar (12.8%)
Greece (16.4%)
Greenland (28.2%)
Iceland (27.2%)
Ireland (19.8%)
Italy (14.2%)
Ivory Coast (12.2%)
Kenya (13%)
Laos (17.3%)
Lesotho (18.3%)
Malawi (16.6%)
Malta (22.4%)
Monaco (19.5%)
Mozambique (18.3%)
Norway (16.6%)
Portugal (13.6%)
Réunion (12.2%)
South Korea (16.2%)
San Marino (19.5%)
South Sudan (15.3%)
Spain (14.8%)
Switzerland (12.9%)
Togo (12.4%)
United Kingdom (15.5%)
Vietnam (16.6%)
Zambia (16.7%)
Zimbabwe (18.8%)

Apart from countries with total case numbers below 10k, the only countries to see an increase in deaths >5% were:

Australia (5.7%)
Croatia (6.5%)
DRC (7.2%)
Finland (7.7%)
Georgia (7.1%)
Greece (6.3%)
Hungary (15.6%)
Laos (32.8%)
Moldova (8.4%)
Norway (12.6%)
Poland (8.3%)
South Korea (21.1%)
Slovakia (6.7%)
Vietnam (12.5%)
Zimbabwe (5.1%)

.. which is really a bit meaningless becasue if you have higher case numbers, you are going to have more deaths.

On that basis, the 15-day CMR is probably a more valid measure as these should be down in very low numbers wherever vaccination rates are high. Globally, the 15-day average is 0.720% but Australia is less than a tenth of that at 0.079% over that period. You'd reasonably expect that countries well above that global average either have low vaccination rates or other issues so let's look at those above 2% and >100k cases.

Afghanistan (6.368%) is worse than the whole pandemic CMR of 4.563%;
Algeria (2.352%) is better than the whole pandemic CMR of 2.873%;
Armenia (5.886%) is worse than the whole pandemic CMR of 2.311%;
Azerbaijan (2.131%) is worse than the whole pandemic CMR of 1.355%;
Bosnia (4.744%) is worse than the whole pandemic CMR of 4.614%;
Brazil (2.167%) is better than the whole pandemic CMR of 2.778%;
Bulgaria (4.185%) is slightly worse than the whole pandemic CMR of 4.143%;
Egypt (4.046%) is better than the whole pandemic CMR of 5.641%;
El Salvador (3.221%) is worse than the whole pandemic CMR of 3.146%;
Georgia (2.439%) is worse than the whole pandemic CMR of 1.476%;
Hungary (11.330%) is much worse than the whole pandemic CMR of 3.119%;
India (3.561%) is much worse than the whole pandemic CMR of 1.380%;
Indonesia (4.084%) is worse than the whole pandemic CMR of 3.384%;
Iran (2.273%) is slightly worse than the whole pandemic CMR of 2.125%;
Iraq (3.077%) is much worse than the whole pandemic CMR of 1.154%;
Kyrgyzstan (4.381%) is much worse than the whole pandemic CMR of 1.517%;
Mexico (5.057%) is (sadly) better than the whole pandemic CMR of 7.539%;
Moldova (15.116%) is much worse than the whole pandemic CMR of 2.732%;
North Macedonia (3.957%) is worse than the whole pandemic CMR of 3.537%;
Paraguay (2.757%) is better than the whole pandemic CMR of 3.533%;
Peru (2.179%) is (thankfully) better than the whole pandemic CMR of 8.841%;
Philippines (16.214%) is much worse than the whole pandemic CMR of 1.811%;
Poland (3.189%) is worse than the whole pandemic CMR of 2.362%;
Romania (6.328%) is much worse than the whole pandemic CMR of 3.248%;
Russia (4.024%) is worse than the whole pandemic CMR of 2.942%;
Serbia (2.095%) is worse than the whole pandemic CMR of 0.978%;
Sri Lanka (2.878%) is worse than the whole pandemic CMR of 2.551%; and
Ukraine (4.421%) is worse than the whole pandemic CMR of 2.615%.

By way of comparison amongst countries considered to have good health care systems, and from best to worst (whole of pandemic average in brackets):

Israel has a 15-day CMR of 0.059% (0.596%) and has vaccinated 96.4% of the eligible population;
Australia 0.079% (0.567%) with 91.4%;
the UK 0.100% (1.149%) with 92.2%;
Sweden 0.135% (1.161%) with 85.6%;
France 0.178% (1.241%) with 78.8%;
Switzerland 0.242% (0.940%) with 80.2%;
Norway 0.250% (0.331%) with 91%;
Italy 0.271% (2.243%) with 85.4%;
New Zealand 0.381% (0.361%) with 91%;
Japan 0.430% (1.061%) with 79%;
the USA 0.573% (1.523%) with only 63%; and
Germany 0.971% (1.571%) with 71.2% vaccinated.

[FairmontGS]

Martin Foley didn't follow Brett Sutton's advised COVID restrictions, pandemic documents reveal

Health Minister Foley chose not to implement the recommended changes, arguing their introduction could negatively impact hospitality businesses, reduce compliance and potentially undermine confidence in the government's public health response.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-...ases/100734090

[MITCHAY]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

Martin Foley didn't follow Brett Sutton's advised COVID restrictions, pandemic documents reveal

Health Minister Foley chose not to implement the recommended changes, arguing their introduction could negatively impact hospitality businesses, reduce compliance and potentially undermine confidence in the government's public health response.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-...ases/100734090

To be fair GSS has ignored Kerry Chant at every turn and march her out to somehow sell a **** sandwich

I think we just will get through this **** rather than keep hiding under the doona for another ****ing year like some other states want to do.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

To be fair GSS has ignored Kerry Chant at every turn and march her out to somehow sell a **** sandwich

I think we just will get through this **** rather than keep hiding under the doona for another ****ing year like some other states want to do.

It was clear early on she was being thrown under the bus at those pressers. Surprised she is still in that role.

Give it 12 - 24 months, and watch for the class actions, or attempts at least, against those that blatantly ignored health advice and which resulted mass casualties and those suffering from long covid.

I hope Dr Chant kept good notes!

[Work Horse]

When things look difficult the good Lord above may have answers.

[buggerlugs]

One way of showing your displeasure towards the vaccine.........

https://www.news.com.au/national/vic...e527c28d333f51

[Falcon SXR8]

Originally Posted by buggerlugs

One way of showing your displeasure towards the vaccine.........

https://www.news.com.au/national/vic...e527c28d333f51

Who needs a vaccine when you have your own personal flame force field on your body. Hell probably get rid of your mask as well

[Cav]

Mask mandates are in for Yap-Hoon

The lady at the bakery didn't recognise me today so I had to remind her of my club discount - you know, the Good Lookin' Blokes Club.

[russellw]

Australia
NSW records 18,278 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases slightly to 1.1613 (from 1.2322) while the actual line has turned downwards although still well above the predictive trend line.



VIC records 7,172 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 1.1540 (from 1.1910) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



Only SA (2,108) and Tasmania (433) set new daily highs yesterday (1/1).

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT January 1st 2022.

35,254 new cases for Australia (a new record) and 11 deaths so the CMR is 0.523%.

NZ didn't report any cases and 0 deaths for a CMR of 0.361%.

The UK recorded 162,572 cases and 154 deaths for a CMR of 1.136%.

450,298 new cases in the USA yesterday and 716 deaths sees CMR at 1.520%.

Other notable points: (weekend reporting)
Global cases pass 289M, the last 1M in 1 day;
Europe passes 88M cases;
North America passes 66M cases;
The UK passes 13M cases;
France passes 10M cases;

Faeroe Islands (317);
Uganda (1,867);
Ireland (23,281); and
Australia (35,254);

.... recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

Senegal moves above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and no countries drop below.

We are still waiting for 1 country in Asia (Oman); 3 in Europe (Spain, Sweden, Switzerland) and 3 in North America (Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras) to report data for 31st December some of which will be reported after the weekend.

[FairmontGS]

Welcome to 2022, the year this pandemic ends

In 2022, the COVID-19 pandemic will end. Driven by the inexorable, inevitable spread of the Omicron variant and the use of vaccines, the global population will generate immunity to this virus.

The basic proposition of a pandemic, an infectious disease spreading globally among an infection-naive population, will be void. We will live our lives again as part of the incredibly social and incurably optimistic human species that thrives on this planet and has emerged from countless pandemics over history stronger and more capable of managing the next.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/welc...30-p59kzf.html

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

Welcome to 2022, the year this pandemic ends



https://www.smh.com.au/national/welc...30-p59kzf.html

How are they so certain? Now that we're pushing hard on letting it rip the number of mutations into a new variant is a lot higher. What's to stop us breeding a new mutation that keeps the pandemic going even longer?

It just seems awfully presumptive that we're going to let everyone get omicron and it's such a mild illness and then it's going to be over because we'll all have immunity. We will always have immunocompromised people and they're the ones that tend to cultivate the new mutations, aren't they?

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by leesa

How are they so certain? Now that we're pushing hard on letting it rip the number of mutations into a new variant is a lot higher. What's to stop us breeding a new mutation that keeps the pandemic going even longer?

It just seems awfully presumptive that we're going to let everyone get omicron and it's such a mild illness and then it's going to be over because we'll all have immunity.
We will always have immunocompromised people and they're the ones that tend to cultivate the new mutations, aren't they?

I hope not, my wife's still got 12 months of Chemo and radiation to go yet

[FairmontGS]

I read it more as an establishment piece - I don't think it will be long until we see Dr. Coatsworth as a candidate, most likely Coalition.

[Pooka]

So rapid antigen tests are hard to come by at supermarkets and pharmacies. Not many test kits available in the country apparently.

Then how, and why, are Harvey Norman stores now selling RAT kits?? An electronics and furniture outlet now selling rapid test kits?? While the pharmacies have low, or no stock? Did Harvey Norman sell toilet paper during the great TP crisis of 2020 too?

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by Pooka

So rapid antigen tests are hard to come by at supermarkets and pharmacies. Not many test kits available in the country apparently.

Then how, and why, are Harvey Norman stores now selling RAT kits?? An electronics and furniture outlet now selling rapid test kits?? While the pharmacies have low, or no stock? Did Harvey Norman sell toilet paper during the great TP crisis of 2020 too?

Like i said almost a week ago, the major players werent prepared at all whereas the company I work for had been sitting on 10's of thousands and we are in no way considered a part of the health scene.

[arm79]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

Like i said almost a week ago, the major players werent prepared at all whereas the company I work for had been sitting on 10's of thousands and we are in no way considered a part of the health scene.

I don't get what you are trying to say.

Last week you teased that you could buy them if you knew where to look. Yet you wouldn't tell anyone where it was because you got them from your employer and you didn't want your employer known.

But they apparently had 40,000 kits in storage waiting on approval to sell them, so we couldn't buy them anyways, but yet they mailed some to you.

So how did you get hold of a kit they apparently weren't selling because they weren't approved for sale, yet kits have been approved for months.

Now you are saying the major players weren't prepared but apparently your employer is because you've been sitting on 10's of thousands.

Why are they sitting on them? What approval is needed? Or are they sitting on them until the demand has skyrocketed it so they can cash in? If you sell these 10's of thousands in minutes and can't get anymore quickly does that mean your unprepared as well? That 40,000 wouldn't satisfy a day's testing in NSW at the moment.

I'm confused... Is anyone else?

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by arm79

I don't get what you are trying to say.

Last week you teased that you could buy them if you knew where to look. Yet you wouldn't tell anyone where it was because you got them from your employer and you didn't want your employer known.

But they apparently had 40,000 kits in storage waiting on approval to sell them, so we couldn't buy them anyways, but yet they mailed some to you.

So how did you get hold of a kit they apparently weren't selling because they weren't approved for sale, yet kits have been approved for months.

Now you are saying the major players weren't prepared but apparently your employer is because you've been sitting on 10's of thousands.

Why are they sitting on them? What approval is needed? Or are they sitting on them until the demand has skyrocketed it so they can cash in? If you sell these 10's of thousands in minutes and can't get anymore quickly does that mean your unprepared as well? That 40,000 wouldn't satisfy a day's testing in NSW at the moment.

I'm confused... Is anyone else?

RAT tests weren't approved for sale in SA until 24/12. I happened to enquire about them at a chemist shop whilst doing xmas shopping that day, got told they didnt have them yet and wouldnt do until this coming week.
I already knew I could get them from work, like Harvey Norman we arent a health/Wellness specific industry but we had the forethought to have 40k units in stock waiting on the green light, the chemist chain obviously didnt.

We sold out almost straight away.
My Employer gets a notification when a new customer signs up, he had to switch it off xmas day as it went off constantly.
We had thousands more on order and sitting in an interstate warehouse.
They arrived late last week and were available when I mentioned it.
We wouldnt be hard to find if you we're searching online and im sure we also werent alone in having them available for delivery online.
The point of me mentioning it initially was to highlight that going to your nearest woolies or chemist chain wasnt the only option,.

My Daughter tested positive to Covid xmas eve so I rang my manager and secured a kit, he delivered it when they opened up after xmas as im on leave and was in isolation.
I dont have to reveal my Employers identity in a public forum, you can thank the hypersensitive for that.

Ok.

[BENT_8]

Might as well give an update on my Daughters experience.
Shes 21, suffered from upper respiratory issues from Birth, if anyone gets a cold its her.
She came down with a case of headaches, congestion and a slight cough on the 22/12 and believed she picked it up from a sick work colleague who claimed her GP said she didnt have Covid and not to bother getting tested.
By xmas eve my Daughter had become worse, sourced a RAT test from a friend, returned a positive and so attended the 24hr Victoria park testing site where she sat for about 6hrs.
She came home and we isolated whilst she awaited her result which came back positive early on boxing day.
My Wife, 10yr old, 17yr old and myself immediately attended the same testing site as close contacts and received our negative results by 10am the following morning, we had to complete another 5 days of isolation,.

My Daughter learnt that she should receive contact from SA Health and a kit to keep an eye on oxygen levels etc. To manage at home, a week passed by and she heard nothing, she tried numerous times to contact the covid helpline and couldnt get through having been on hold for hours.
On Friday, day 6 for the rest of us we did a RAT test and again returned negatives.
Shes a stubborn bugger and didnt like the idea of taking up a bed or wasting ambo's time but by late new years eve was struggling to take breath, felt like drowning and had terrible chest and back pains, we convinced her to get an ambulance and she agreed.
They arrived quite quickly, assessed her and left telling her to make an appt. At the RAH the next day.
She went there, they did some obs and sent her away.

Today she is much better, still got mild pains and the occasional runny nose but apart from that on the mend.
Considering 4 of us live in the house with her and have all avoided contracting it I'd guess that she didnt have the very transmissible Omicron

Its a weird situation to be in. Im a firm believer that avoiding it is wishful thinking but just spent almost 2 weeks with it in our house.
Part of me wishes we did get it and dealt with it together whilst were all on holidays, now as our isolation and leave from work is over we head back out into the masses and await our turn.

Originally Posted by arm79

I'm confused... Is anyone else?

Yeah it seems like a weird flex, 'hay guyz i know where to get test kits, my company are so cool they predicted the need and bought up tens of thousands. you can get some if you know where to look but i'm not going to tell you, you have to be in the know'

It seems to be like those kids who pipe up that they know a secret and then refuse to say any more because it's a secret. what's the point of speaking up at all?

[slowsnake]

I am actually enjoying, or getting a type of perverse pleasure watching the world fall to pieces, compounding if you like!..its like watching a race horse that is a sprinter trying to run out the 3200m of the Melbourne Cup.
I like it......