Vfacts May 2011

[prydey]

Originally Posted by jpd80

and giving them what they want.

.

this isn't aimed at you jpd80, but just this comment in general. its one that i don't like. holden (with commodore) don't offer any more than ford does (with falcon) and yet the masses on here always say that ford don't give people what they want, and apparently holden does???

so a large car, made to a budget is exactly what people want, and its also what people don't want, depending on which badge it has??

getting back to sales, does anyone, apart from the accountants at ford, know the exact figure as to how many units falcon needs to sell to be viable?

toyota sell a lot more cars, but their local content is still reasonably small. are they being propped up by their imports?

its all guesswork and whilst we would all like to see sales increase, its a different world now, and there's a lot more choice. i believe there is a good chance ford have moved with the times a lot more than we give them credit for and we need to not be so 'falcon focussed', but see it as just another model in the ford stable.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by prydey

this isn't aimed at you jpd80, but just this comment in general. its one that i don't like. holden (with commodore) don't offer any more than ford does (with falcon) and yet the masses on here always say that ford don't give people what they want, and apparently holden does???

Hey not aimed at you but that opining is as bankrupt as Ford's sales,
the two cars are not the same and clearly buyers can see the difference.

We need to get over this idea that Ford and Holden pitch exactly to the same demographics,
clearly if that was the case then Ford is being battered badly but I believe that the people who
prefer Commodore over Ford have probably leaned that way for years but Falcon buyers are
open to different vehicles to fill their needs....that's the difference and still, just my opinion.

[Brazen]

Originally Posted by prydey

this isn't aimed at you jpd80, but just this comment in general. its one that i don't like. holden (with commodore) don't offer any more than ford does (with falcon) and yet the masses on here always say that ford don't give people what they want, and apparently holden does???

Approx 40% of Commodores are V8.
Approx 30-40% of Commodores are wagon.

Falcon does not offer both.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Brazen

Approx 40% of Commodores are V8.
Approx 30-40% of Commodores are wagon.

Falcon does not offer both.

Not so, Holden is flat out selling 12,000 V8s a year and their total build last year was around 60,000.
When Sportwagon arrived, there was a big transfer to Sedan sales to it, a lot of people missed that detail...

[prydey]

Originally Posted by jpd80

When Sportwagon arrived, there was a big transfer to Sedan sales to it, a lot of people missed that detail...

and many people just didn't want to admit it. there are those on here (hello brazen) who believe wagon customers are 'new' customers.

Originally Posted by Brazen

Approx 40% of Commodores are V8.
Approx 30-40% of Commodores are wagon.

Falcon does not offer both.

falcon doesn't need to offer every model variant. ford sell v8's via fpv or a turbo 6 in the falcon. funnily, v8's outsell 6t's when badged as fpv but the 6t used to outsell the v8 when badged as ford.

ford also sell a wagon, called mondeo, which actually offers more space than the commodore fraud. ford also have the territory.

Originally Posted by jpd80

We need to get over this idea that Ford and Holden pitch exactly to the same demographics,
clearly if that was the case then Ford is being battered badly but I believe that the people who
prefer Commodore over Ford have probably leaned that way for years but Falcon buyers are
open to different vehicles to fill their needs....that's the difference and still, just my opinion.

actually, commodore and falcon are both selling in the large car segment, but i do believe that a large % of the masses are sheep, and just march into the holden dealerships when its time to buy a new car.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by prydey

actually, commodore and falcon are both selling in the large car segment, but i do believe that a large % of the masses are sheep, and just march into the holden dealerships when its time to buy a new car.

Not true.
75% of sales of both cars in fact go to fleets, so your vision of mass sheep sales is incorrect.

[ray38l]

They are not sheep. People like what holden are offering with the commodore more then then ford with the falcon, simple as that.
There are always people who will buy because of a badge but it works both ways so you cant use that excuse as to why the falcon isn't selling

[prydey]

maybe the owners of the companies that buy these vehicles are also part of the flock!

its not that different to what you said. i just worded it differently. you said holden buyers are long time holden fans, and don't shop around.

so holden fans buy commodores, and ford fans buy anything BUT falcons.

on a slightly different topic, i'm not sure where all the commodores go, although i do admit, i only spend a short time on the road each day (maybe 1hr total) and i see plenty of fg's (esp xr's and g's). being adelaide, its normally got a strong showing of commodores but i don't see double the amount. it was the same story in bris, where i was on holiday for pretty much all of may. definitely didn't see twice as many commodores as falcons. like i said though, my experience is a pretty small cross section.

[prydey]

Originally Posted by ray38l

They are not sheep. People like what holden are offering with the commodore more then then ford with the falcon, simple as that.
There are always people who will buy because of a badge but it works both ways so you cant use that excuse as to why the falcon isn't selling

if you add the modeo wagon sales on to the falcon sales (i have no idea how many mondeo wagons sell) and take into consideration the lack of lpg or v8, i'd say falcon is doing ok. if you look back over all these doomsday v facts threads, i'm not one of the ones that thinks falcon is about to die, nor do i stick the boots in to a product that i'm a so called fan of.

[ray38l]

Originally Posted by prydey

if you add the modeo wagon sales on to the falcon sales (i have no idea how many mondeo wagons sell) and take into consideration the lack of lpg or v8, i'd say falcon is doing ok. if you look back over all these doomsday v facts threads, i'm not one of the ones that thinks falcon is about to die, nor do i stick the boots in to a product that i'm a so called fan of.

the thing is you cant add the mondeo wagon sales to falcon. It is not a falcon wagon as much as people want it to be.
I cant see the lpg model adding many customers. I think fleet buyers will just swap over from the petrol model to gas.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by prydey

maybe the owners of the companies that buy these vehicles are also part of the flock!

its not that different to what you said. i just worded it differently. you said holden buyers are long time holden fans, and don't shop around.

so holden fans buy commodores, and ford fans buy anything BUT falcons.

Fleets are buying heaps more commodores than Falcons, that's the difference right there...
A lot of fleet owners are stalling off purchases waiting for EcoLPI to arrive but those that can't
are not option for petrol Falcons, they are choosing something else that's more efficient.....

[Ford_The_Win]

Interesting to note though, that back in Falcon's heyday, the XF era, 53% of Falcons back then were being sold to fleets. So there hasn't been that drastic of a decrease in fleet sales, it's the private buyers that have dropped off the face of the earth.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Ford_The_Win

Interesting to note though, that back in Falcon's heyday, the XF era, 53% of Falcons back then were being sold to fleets. So there hasn't been that drastic of a decrease in fleet sales, it's the private buyers that have dropped off the face of the earth.

Of late, that 1330 numbers says that everyone has backed right off, and that's
with XR6s on sale for $34,990 drive away and plans down to $30K drive away...

[Joe5619]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Of late, that 1330 numbers says that everyone has backed right off, and that's
with XR6s on sale for $34,990 drive away and plans down to $30K drive away...

OMG.. 30K drive away!!! That is a great price for an XR6... As much as I don’t agree with this price, something needs to be done to move the old stock, especially if they are bringing out an limited edition one... If they can’t sell them at that price, might as well give up!!


Is there still any profit in it for Ford at 30k???

[bobthebilda]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Of late, that 1330 numbers says that everyone has backed right off, and that's
with XR6s on sale for $34,990 drive away and plans down to $30K drive away...

People were always finding it hard to justify large car production when they were selling for high $30 thousands (before on road costs were even included), and commodore and Falcon were regularly selling over 5,000 cars a month each. Now we have 3500 commodores, 1400 Falcons a month, going for mid to low 30's (with on road costs included in these prices). And dare I say alot of the sales are going for less than these prices to fleets.

Its hard not to see Large car manufacturing is causing quite a large bloodbath (on the balance sheet) at these prices and volumes.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Joe5619

OMG.. 30K drive away!!! That is a great price for an XR6... As much as I don’t agree with this price, something needs to be done to move the old stock, especially if they are bringing out an limited edition one... If they can’t sell them at that price, might as well give up!!


Is there still any profit in it for Ford at 30k???

I believe the break even for Holden and Ford is down around $25,000 but my intel was from a few years ago.
Just remember Holden exported SS as G8 and sold them in the USA for US $29,990...with $4,000 cash incentive

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by bobthebilda

People were always finding it hard to justify large car production when they were selling for high $30 thousands (before on road costs were even included), and commodore and Falcon were regularly selling over 5,000 cars a month each. Now we have 3500 commodores, 1400 Falcons a month, going for mid to low 30's (with on road costs included in these prices). And dare I say alot of the sales are going for less than these prices to fleets.

Its hard not to see Large car manufacturing is causing quite a large bloodbath (on the balance sheet) at these prices and volumes.

Nothing like the $200 million blood bath Holden suffered at the end of the G8 contract.
The cars will be sold, we're probably talking about 3,000 odd stubborn ones that buyers aren't fussed on.
Truth to tell they're just base XR6s (glorified XTs) built to move parts that were laying around..

And FWIW, I don't believe Ford and Holden manufacturing costs are as fixed as you make out.
Ford has been very proactive in managing costs over the last 8 months on 3-day weeks but
you are also right in saying we must be at the bottom range for Ford's plant viability.

If as being said elsewhere, Territory is being built 1 to 1 with Falcon instead of 2 to 1
then that is a good move especially if they swing over to EcoLPI versions late next week,
Ford neds to start building these two en masse to get enough stock to dealers because
the order banks must be saturated and Ford needs to be ready for the influx early next month.
This will affect Territory, sedan and Ute...fingers crossed they get the job done.

[Road_Warrior]

Originally Posted by jpd80

you are also right in saying we must be at the bottom range for Ford's plant viability.

Now this is something I have been wondering about lately.

Reason I say this is: a Ford plant in Vietnam has recently started producing the Fiesta, in addition to its normal workload of Mondeos, Escapes and some other vehicle which I can't think of right now. The capacity of that plant?

14,000 units - per year.

Now I understand that plant would have a much lower cost base but it does make you wonder where the bottom actually is for Broadmeadows. But hell, if Ford can keep a plant open in Vietnam with that piddling capacity, our efforts don't look to shabby at all.

[Adamz Ghia]

Originally Posted by Road_Warrior

Now this is something I have been wondering about lately.

Reason I say this is: a Ford plant in Vietnam has recently started producing the Fiesta, in addition to its normal workload of Mondeos, Escapes and some other vehicle which I can't think of right now. The capacity of that plant?

14,000 units - per year.

Now I understand that plant would have a much lower cost base but it does make you wonder where the bottom actually is for Broadmeadows. But hell, if Ford can keep a plant open in Vietnam with that piddling capacity, our efforts don't look to shabby at all.

What are their labour costs...?

[Road_Warrior]

Originally Posted by Adamz Ghia

What are their labour costs...?

No idea, as I said they would be coming off a much lower cost base than here but it makes me wonder what sort of criteria Dearborn applies to the viability of an assembly line

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Road_Warrior

No idea, as I said they would be coming off a much lower cost base than here but it makes me wonder what sort of criteria Dearborn applies to the viability of an assembly line

For years the bottom line number for Broadmeadows was 40,000 combined production but
after they reduced staff and changed equipment and product mix, the word is that it's now much lower...
I can't get a figure because it very sensitive but definitely a lot lower than 40K combined.
My guess 25-30K/year but have no support for that, so let's hope Ford doesn't have to test that limit....

[naddis01]

Originally Posted by Road_Warrior

14,000 units - per year.

Do you have a link for that? I sounds unusually low for me especially if they are producing more than one vehicle.

[Road_Warrior]

Originally Posted by naddis01

Do you have a link for that? I sounds unusually low for me especially if they are producing more than one vehicle.

http://www.saigonmoney.com/2011/04/2...ll-car-fiesta/

The all-new Fiesta will be built at the plant, which has an annual capacity of 14,000 units and also assembles other Ford vehicles such as Everest, Escape, Focus, Mondeo and Transit.

Current Total Employment: 550
Hourly: 379
Salaried: 171
PRODUCTION HISTORY
Current Products: Ranger, Focus, Transit, Mondeo, Everest, Ford Escape
Year Opened: 1997
Site Size in Acres: 74
Plant Size in Square Feet: 111,945

[Bossxr8]

Full production from go to whoa or just CKD assembly?

[Road_Warrior]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

Full production from go to whoa or just CKD assembly?

Don't know mate. With the sheer number of platforms they make I would suggest CKD.

[bobthebilda]

Originally Posted by Road_Warrior

Now this is something I have been wondering about lately.
Reason I say this is: a Ford plant in Vietnam has recently started producing the Fiesta, in addition to its normal workload of Mondeos, Escapes and some other vehicle which I can't think of right now. The capacity of that plant?
14,000 units - per year.
Now I understand that plant would have a much lower cost base but it does make you wonder where the bottom actually is for Broadmeadows. But hell, if Ford can keep a plant open in Vietnam with that piddling capacity, our efforts don't look to shabby at all.

I wouldnt see the Vietnam plant as a direct comparison against other plants.

The import tax on a new car in Vietnam is around 80%

The imported vehicles to Vietnam will be subject to import tax rate of 72-82% from the the first of January 2011 according a new tariff issued by the Vietnam Ministry of Finance

The top 10 sellers for April 2011 in Vietnam were

1 Chevrolet Lacetti/Cruze 549
2 Toyota Corolla Altis 516
3 Toyota Innova 515
4 Toyota Fortuner 478
5 Kia Morning 406
6 Toyota Vios 362
7 Chevrolet Spark 342
8 Kia Forte/Koup 284
9 Kia Carens 284
10 Ford Everest 215

So I doubt there is any car with sufficient sales, to justify local production (especially since it is so close to major car exporters).

So I am assumming the local Ford production of 14,000 is in complete knock down kits to overcome the very high import duties. An knock down line, doesnt need a $200 million dollar paint shop, doesnt need a high tech $200 million assmebly line (at 60 cars a day, they probably push them along on trollies). They probably make just as much money selling the wooden shipping crates for housing, as they do from making the cars.

[vztrt]

Originally Posted by prydey

and many people just didn't want to admit it. there are those on here (hello brazen) who believe wagon customers are 'new' customers.

Wagon did to the Commo sedan, what Terri did to Falcon. This is why the Falcon and Terri will be as close as possible to each other to reduce costs. I'm also hoping this new down balance will allow more flexibility on their model mix when they build.

Originally Posted by jpd80

Not true.
75% of sales of both cars in fact go to fleets, so your vision of mass sheep sales is incorrect.

This is one thing people don't realise. The majority of sales for Commodore & Falcon are fleet. This is why LPi is important. Just hope the fleet managers are impressed by this.

[XR Martin]

Originally Posted by b0son

WHy? Is the last Falcon going to be a collectible? The Magna wasnt...

The last Fairlane went to auction for charity and got well under the its actual retail value....

[bobthebilda]

Drove past a not so big Holden dealership the other day, and wondered why there were (what seemed too many) quite a few new cars with number plates attached. Then thought dealers normally use "Trade Plates" for demonstrators etc so they avoid the cost of $1000 of rego fee's sitting around doing nothing.

Then saw this article on Car sales in WA for the month of May.

Australia's most popular carmaker, Holden, saw its sales dip 19.1 per cent compared to last year, while even Toyota, favourite of resources and mining companies, couldn't arrest the slide, dropping 9.4 per cent on the previous year. Ford sales were down 13.4 per cent on the previous year.

WA sales results for May, no way reflect the results for the rest of Australia for May 2011.
Then I started thinking, (had a rest and some panadol), and then started thinking again. If you were Holden, and you wanted to load up dealers with "registered " cars to boost sales numbers, you would do in the sales markets that are closest to your manufacturing plant. ie SA, Vic and NSW.

You would avoid sending excess stock (with immediate transport costs of $1000 per car), to the further flung places on the continent.

[dimka100]

The biggest issue I see with Ford offering such massive discounts of limited edition models is resale value.

When a genuine retail buyer has forked out 40K on a new base XR6, to only then have Ford release a “limited edition” model offering significantly more kit for low 30s drive away prices, then imagine what this is going to do to the resale value of that base XR6. This buyer will be lucky to get low 20s for it a year later.

I don’t personally care for the highish fuel consumption of a car, or the 6 monthly servicing costs … what I care a lot about is losing huge sums of money in one year due to resale costs … and that is exactly what is driving retail buyers away from Falcons.

No matter how good or bad the car is, if it’s gonna almost half in value after one year of ownership then there is no way its ever gonna get my money again. The Falcon is starting to look exactly like that.