Further context around the 'chip shortage'

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by cs123

If you have never written code for embedded systems you might not realise the challenge involved.

An app written for a computer or phone leverages the operating system, drivers, APIs. They are written at a high level and abstracted from the physical hardware.

Embedded systems execute code directly against the chip. They directly manipulate ports, registers and interrupts. There is no operating system, drivers or APIs to abstract this. You change the chip, you change your code and you change a lot of onboard circuits.

Doing that requires a lot of expense in design, training, probably development tools and testing. Think of the requirements for something like vehicle stability control. Think of the testing required, think of the exposure the company has if it has a glitch. You don't move away from something that is proven without a lot of investment.

If you are starting from a clean sheet like Tesla then you get to adopt the latest and greatest. If you have legacy investment, then you need to iterate.

That's what OP and others aren't getting. Changing these things costs money, a lot of it, and since the current ones do the job they are required to do, there is absolutely zero incentive to spend money making new ones.

The semi-conductor shortage is passing, and they are setting up new semi-conductor factories in the usa, so future supply should never be a problem.

Tesla can use new chip designs cause they were designed from scratch, without any existing components from previous versions to draw from.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by cs123

What do you mean by legacy? You can still buy ICs and Microcontrollers designed in the 70s and 80s. They still work fine and do the job.

The manufacturers negotiate with a vendor to buy components. If the vendor is willing to tool up and make them they will do a deal. If not, the customer will either find a different vendor or reassess their requirements.

This chip shortage isn't just about "legacy" silicon. It's impacting lots of things like graphics cards, mobile phones, laptops...

Start by reading the first post of this thread - it says exactly that.

Their supply chain isn't going to bend over backwards increasing production capacity on old legacy designs that the automotive industry doesn't want to change from.

[cs123]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Start by reading the first post of this thread - it says exactly that.

Their supply chain isn't going to bend over backwards increasing production capacity on old legacy designs that the automotive industry doesn't want to change from.

I did. It didn't make much sense.

They are talking about issues with inventory management (JIT). Never discuss which architectures of chips are considered legacy. Just vague comments about "industry experts". And that seems to be what the issue is all about. JIT doesn't work well in the current climate of manufacturing and shipping delays.

Then some moron from Intel chimes in and tries to be relevant by claiming car manufactures should adopt their chips. If ever there is a story about being legacy, Intel is it. They are getting their lunch eaten by other chip manufacturers.

There is nothing wrong with using established chip architectures as long as they are fit for purpose and vendors are willing to make them.

Legacy is what you get from some/lots of chinese knock offs. They go to market and buy up a batch of superseded components like video screens etc. Things that are no longer manufactured but there is an inventory, they make their product with these and flog them off.

[Franco Cozzo]

Here's another article, this one mentions it's unlikely to improve supply next year.

This is an interesting extract:

Refocusing the supply chain
Murphy said the shortage of semiconductors has shifted some of the thinking as it relates to the supply chain.

"Even before the pandemic hit there was tightening that was going on," he said. "The chip companies actually have to take a different view now of supply entry, it's a strategic imperative in terms of how you plan your capacity, your relationships with your suppliers."

There is more willingness from buyers to pay for capacity in advance or to sign up for take-or-pay agreements, which would mean the company would take the product from the supplier or pay a penalty, Murphy said.

"We're viewing this as a strategic shift to capacity being strategic, not just an afterthought," he said.

That would be directed at automotive manufacturers as they're real problematic with how they treat their suppliers, now the shoe is on the other foot.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/10/03/...rvell-ceo.html

[Dr Smith]

All I know is if I wanted to buy the latest graphics card (RTX3090) for my computer and flightsim hobby it will cost more than 1.5 x the price of my last whole complete PC which was state of the art at time of building it (I7-7700K/GTX1080Ti) is that also a semi conductor caused issue...

[whynot]

There is a lot to unpack in the initial post.

First, several contingent events happened around the same time. The cold weather in Texas, with power supply issues affecting chip factories. The fire in a Japanese chip fabrication factory. Water shortages due to a drought in Taiwan impacting silicon production there. And finally, the Chinese making a strategic purchase of a large volume of chips just before they were locked out of certain markets.

Second, COVID and the extreme flip-flop-flip changes in consumer behaviours. At the front end of COVID, consumers went on a purchasing strike. Then, after a few months, they went on a purchasing binge. Consumer behaviour has changed wildly. One month we are all going overseas. Next month we are locked down, buying cars and consumer toys (filled with low end silicon chips) like it is going out of fashion, and renovating the home. As soon as lockdown ends, who is to say we are all heading off overseas again?

Third, extreme stress in the supply chains. A few years ago, shipping companies were going to the wall left, right, and centre. A lot of container ships were being scrapped. In a remarkable turnaround, in the last 12 months, the price of shipping a 40’ container from Asia to USA has gone up fivefold, and then the ship is waiting up to four weeks to dock on the West Coast.

Fourth, according to TSMC there are some in the supply chain are doing the – lets buy and hoard toilet paper – but are doing chips instead.

With such extreme swings on both the supply and demand side, plus a large hole in the middle, who would want to be the forecast manager or the purchasing officer at any company?

As for possible solutions … Tesla is more vertically integrated than most car manufacturers. This appears to be a strategic decision so they can be nimbler with their continuous improvements. The downside is higher manufacturing cost, which at present the typical Tesla customer seems more than willing to pay. How much longer remains to be seen.

Traditional car manufacturers (Japanese, European, and American) tend to run the Toyota model of lean supply chains and just in time manufacturing. Until now, this has reaped handsome profits (or at least some have been able to stay in business). But, at the end of the day, it is business risk and a business decision. A typical (and somewhat cynical) outcome will be that the incompetent managers that got it wrong will get promoted and the competent managers will get to keep their jobs if they are lucky. I suspect that inventory on hand will be allowed to grow for a few years. But, in the fullness of time and with as much surety as the sun will rise tomorrow, in about a decade’s time a bright young manager with an MBA will be cutting inventory back.

As for the proposal to switch chips … I remain unconvinced. Some of the electronics in a modern vehicle are close to being dedicated Safety Instrumented Systems (SIS). They have a long certification process (think ABS and airbags).

Consider a typical Intel 14nm product, the Broadwell CPU. (Curiously, Intel jumped from 22nm process to 14nm process (skipping 16nm) with the Broadwell chip.) A quick look through the Intel revision/errata history shows the Broadwell CPU chip having 29 different types of “bugs” identified in the chip itself in the period June 2013 through to April 2020. That, in part, comes from the increased complexity of packing more switches into tighter spaces.

Just imagine the challenge to car manufacturers if the chip in charge of, say, air bag deployment, had 29 different and subtle bugs identified in the same seven year period. Do they ignore the problem? Do they recall the car 29 times?

So, while it may be easy to laugh at a simple controller that has nothing but transistors, resistors, and capacitors, its simplicity gives it robustness.

Circling back to the problem of insufficient chips. My view is that it is a business problem with the risk carried by the car manufacturer. If they haven’t got a car to sell me when I want one, that is their problem to manage.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by whynot

So, while it may be easy to laugh at a simple controller that has nothing but transistors, resistors, and capacitors, its simplicity gives it robustness.

Except that photo I put up, its not robust because it fails on the regular

[hayseed]

Originally Posted by whynot

My view is that it is a business problem with the risk carried by the car manufacturer. If they haven’t got a car to sell me when I want one, that is their problem to manage.

Bingo..

[oldel]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Except that photo I put up, its not robust because it fails on the regular

How does it fail?

[whynot]

Just to underscore the ridiculousness of the Intel comment about all-you-can-eat 16nm chips ... reports in today's IT press is that Apple is cutting down their iPhone 13 production by 10 million units down to 90 million units due to chip shortages. I believe that the iPhone uses a 5nm process?

[Citroënbender]

There go any chances of a Cyber Monday discount on the iPhone 13…

[stevefreestyle]

Originally Posted by jpd80

The chips that were in short supply at Ford were for the VDU graphic which seems to control a lot of key systems these days. There were around 45,000 drivable but incomplete F Series pickups built and stored at the start of August, by now over 23,000 of them have been completed and delivered.

Fords "Just-In-Time" Inventory Management Policy (Timing ordering components etc only when required - with no stocking of inventory), has well and truly come back to bite it with the Chip Shortage !

[Fordman1]

Originally Posted by stevefreestyle

Fords "Just-In-Time" Inventory Management Policy (Timing ordering components etc only when required - with no stocking of inventory), has well and truly come back to bite it with the Chip Shortage !

Everyone has a shortage, not just Ford.

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by stevefreestyle

Fords "Just-In-Time" Inventory Management Policy (Timing ordering components etc only when required - with no stocking of inventory), has well and truly come back to bite it with the Chip Shortage !

What do you mean by Fords JIT Policy? It's pretty much an industry wide system, invented by Toyota.

[J Arthur Rank]

I could see it being useful if Intel are just going to offer the use of a foundry to fabricate certain chips. Trying to get car makers to use Intel designed chips sounds like posturing and ****er speak and/or headline grabbing from the bloke in charge there.


I reckon a lot of cars would use PCMs based on PowerPC architecture anyway - the Falcon sure does so Ford America no doubt still do since it is proven and works.

[stevefreestyle]

Originally Posted by Fordman1

Everyone has a shortage, not just Ford.

However not everyone is hit as hard as Ford.

[Sprintey]

Very interesting thread to read and it lends to the idea that if something is simple and works, it should remain simple and continue to work.

I'm the bearer of bad news, for if the semiconductor shortage abates, there's this:

https://www.zerohedge.com/commoditie...l-car-industry

The jist I got was that as China was short of coal (wonder how?) they ordered factories to reduce output. Add this to a monopoly on magnesium production, and inauspicious times result.

"While a shortage of semiconductors has plagued the global auto automotive industry this year, the market is now turning its focus to magnesium, a hardening agent of aluminum. Such a shortage could paralyze the aluminum billet production used to make engine blocks, gearboxes, frames, body panels, and rims, among other critical items for automobiles in Europe and the Americas. "

(The Ideas-Men amongst you are probably thinking: "Let's just go back to iron-blocks,"...)

[simon varley]

it's not actually the car manufacturers that define this but their suppliers. Bosch, Visteon, Aptiv, ZF, etc etc are the ones that define what hardware is required. the car manufacturers just define what it needs to do

[whynot]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Cars always seem to run microwave oven level electronics in comparison to consumer electronics, I find it interesting that they're using technology that dates back to when the first iPhone was introduced, 15 years ago.

Looks like your wish has been granted.

In the last day or so there have been a number of news articles about Ford signing a non-binding agreement with GlobalFoundaries (ironically owned by Abu Dhabi's sovereign wealth fund) to increase chip supply in the US.

In addition, GM apparently is working on new chip designs to dramatically deduce total component count and to on-shore chip production back into the USA.

[Franco Cozzo]

Automotive industry has been off shoring it's supply chain for decades to 'low cost' countries, but now there's been a once in a lifetime kick up the *** they're all scrambling to keep their business going.

Give it 5 years and it'll all get offshored again

My favorite one was having to sign ethical supply agreements making sure I'm not capitalising on slave labour and then my customer gets caught using Uyghur labor camps.

[Metdevil]

Originally Posted by Metdevil

Can I just say that a car is the very last thing I want to be utilising the latest tech :p
We live in a world where power tools come with bluetooth connectivity, printers refuse to print unless you download an app and use their ink, and TVs lose functionality after having support dropped after only a year.

The last thing I want is to have my car refuse to start because I haven't installed the latest firmware update. If they really wanted to, they could lock cars to single owners and completely cripple the used car market by charging subsequent owners for an 'unlock key' to get it out of limp mode.

We all know how quickly tech evolves, phones and computers are considered 'outdated' after being only months old. Our FG Falcons came with iPhone connectivity only for Apple to change the plug they use.

I'm perfectly fine with keeping tech out of cars, let's go back to cassettes

I know it's an old thread, but I just wanted to bump this to say that this is exactly the thing I was talking about:

https://www.bmw.co.uk/en/shop/ls/dp/Seat_Heating_SFA_gb

BMW are charging £15 per month to use the hardware that already exists in your car...