Nissan Leaf - The Answer to Peak Oil ?

[Rodge]

That's nice of you to say Poyal. The reason I've given it a decent analysis is my wife expressed interest in having one. I've made the case why i don't think they're all they're cracked up to be and convinced her at the same time.

I agree greenies, those looking to make a social, fashion, technology or politically correct or otherwise impression will go right ahead after all if it wasn't for people buying those first Plasma T.V.'s for $17,000 complete with pixel failure and jerky movement we wouldn't have the superb big screen T.V's we can all enjoy today for next to nothing

We're happy to let others be the guniea pigs on this one.
Cheers

[trippytaka]

I am always astounded at the lack of media surrounding oil consumption.

Peak Oil, depends on who you have spoken to, has past. We're up s***t creek.

But what astounds me is that people and the media focus on petrol when talking about oil.

when peak oil is finally recognises, and production costs push up the price of oil, it's not transportaiton I'll be worried about. It's the economy, it's food and it's medicine.

Look around you right now, or loko at a photo of a Nissan Leaf. How many of the products you see in your immediate range of vision would exist without CHEAP oil? Plasitcs? Gone. Paints? Dyes? Fabrics? The list goes on. Basically everything in the room (or in the car) was created using oil.

Take CHEAP oil away and we lose the economy. Why? Because the basics of almost all the products we buy are made from oil.

Take CHEAP oil away and we lose mass food prduction - yes petrol, but pesticides, and plastic wrappings that seal food. And all the chemical preservatives.

Take CHEAP oil away and we lose Medicines. Sorry, mostly made from chemicals using oil.


(On a side note, anyone in here who comments about greenhouse gas being caused by electric cars needs to research the trial of fleets next year. Better Place, GE and Renault. All run on renewable energy. That's where it's heading, not coal. EVs have never been about coal, the idea has always been structured around creating infrastructure to provide clean energy to run them) http://www.betterplace.com.au/?gclid...FYSFpAodfG6CqQ

[Rodge]

Not to forget most fertilizers that have been an absolute necessity to try and feed the 7 billion people world-wide are made of oil.

World wide demand is currently sitting at 86 million barrells per day according to the International Energy agency and has been stuck at that every since the global financial crisis hit, after preceeding growth alomost every year before that BUT notice how nearly all the major economies are seriously affected by the global financial crisis yet we still have $100 oil !!

What happens to the oil price as soon as the economies start some feeble attempt to grow again, oil goes ballistic of course. At present from what I can see there is an absolute maximum production capacity for oil around the world which leaves very very little headroom for demand growth, some experts reckon there's as little as 1 million barrells of spare capacity if all the pumps ran at full capacity at present yet as many know, there's heaps of oil fields, especially in the Middle East that start to run dry later this decade and some economists and forecasters are predicting a supply shortfall of as much as 20 million barrells of oil per day later this decade and that's without any economic growth !!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smRo7...eature=related

The answer for Australians is LPG, there are many many decades of proven reserves and its very very cheap, a liquid injection LPG Falcon is a complete no brainer for any forward thinking Australian resident who wants a large car and affordable motoring for the forseeable future, unfortunatly the picture regarding LPG reserves is less clear in N.Z. and current prices of $1.30 per litre are significantly less attractive.

What we were all shocked by in mid 2008 when fuel prices soared was the warning we all need to consider and its definitly a portender of much worse to come in the near future. Maybe then the Leaf will make sense ?? because it doesn't now. The era of cheap oil is coming to an end, think about it, how will you cope when petrol and diesel goes to $5 a litre ?

[trippytaka]

Originally Posted by Rodge

Not to forget most fertilizers that have been an absolute necessity to try and feed the 7 billion people world-wide are made of oil.

World wide demand is currently sitting at 86 million barrells per day according to the International Energy agency and has been stuck at that every since the global financial crisis hit, after preceeding growth alomost every year before that BUT notice how nearly all the major economies are seriously affected by the global financial crisis yet we still have $100 oil !!

What happens to the oil price as soon as the economies start some feeble attempt to grow again, oil goes ballistic of course. At present from what I can see there is an absolute maximum production capacity for oil around the world which leaves very very little headroom for demand growth, some experts reckon there's as little as 1 million barrells of spare capacity if all the pumps ran at full capacity at present yet as many know, there's heaps of oil fields, especially in the Middle East that start to run dry later this decade and some economists and forecasters are predicting a supply shortfall of as much as 20 million barrells of oil per day later this decade and that's without any economic growth !!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smRo7...eature=related

The answer for Australians is LPG, there are many many decades of proven reserves and its very very cheap, a liquid injection LPG Falcon is a complete no brainer for any forward thinking Australian resident who wants a large car and affordable motoring for the forseeable future, unfortunatly the picture regarding LPG reserves is less clear in N.Z. and current prices of $1.30 per litre are significantly less attractive.

What we were all shocked by in mid 2008 when fuel prices soared was the warning we all need to consider and its definitly a portender of much worse to come in the near future. Maybe then the Leaf will make sense ?? because it doesn't now. The era of cheap oil is coming to an end, think about it, how will you cope when petrol and diesel goes to $5 a litre ?

That's the multi-trillion dollar questionL: what do we do when Oil is at prices high enough to demand $5 or 10 / L? Do we finally stop driving? Will there be loads of people who can't afford certain luxuries made from oil? And there will be underclasses who can't afford the every day products, the necessities from oil.

What about food production? what happens when 60, 70, 80, 90% of people can't afford food because of the run on effect? Do we let them starve? What about if they are Australians?

All very interesting questions.

I hear a lot of people in the media and just in general slagging off EVs and alternative fuels etc. But at the end of the day, it would be kind of nice to know that there was a solid plan in place for when the **** finally hits the fan

[billy302]

While I applaud their efforts I can't help thinking about those planes that fly about. Try this;
Airbus A321. Range 5600 Km's
Fuel capacity 24,050 Litres (STD)
Fuel Capacity 30,030 Litres (Long Range)
Now if we do some arithmetic we get
5600.00 KM's
23000.00 Litres (this is an estimate only of the Fuel used.)
410.71 litres/100 km
0.69 miles per gallon. Yes that's right
Makes the old falcon seem positively frugal and all this to transport a maximum of 220 people.
Think of the number of flights globally per day and the amount of fuel used, makes the mind boggle.

[b0son]

EV?

pfffft. we need to be looking at hydrogen.

[Rockape]

Doesn't aviation use up about 40% of oil supply???? Anyone know?

[Rodge]

Originally Posted by trippytaka

That's the multi-trillion dollar questionL: what do we do when Oil is at prices high enough to demand $5 or 10 / L? Do we finally stop driving? Will there be loads of people who can't afford certain luxuries made from oil? And there will be underclasses who can't afford the every day products, the necessities from oil.

What about food production? what happens when 60, 70, 80, 90% of people can't afford food because of the run on effect? Do we let them starve? What about if they are Australians?

All very interesting questions.

I hear a lot of people in the media and just in general slagging off EVs and alternative fuels etc. But at the end of the day, it would be kind of nice to know that there was a solid plan in place for when the **** finally hits the fan

There's actually no shortage of oil in the world, there's thousands of billions of barrells of oil locked up in oil shale deposits around the world, BUT there's three major problems:-
1. There appears to be glaring mis-match between depletion of significant conventional reserves predominantly in the middle east, middle / later part of this decade and when these new oil shale reserves can be tapped.

2. There are massive environmental issues with extraction of oil from shale deposits.

3. Oil shale extractionis expensive and even if somehow we can juggle the demand / supply issues later this decade and obviously we have too, oil shale extraction on a massive scale implies at least $200 per barrell oil.

Here's the sad and inevitable fact - We won't run out of oil, we'll run out of oil that a very significant proportion of the public can reasonably afford to buy and it WILL happen later this decade.

What happens when it costs $10 a litre for petrol and that implies $600 to fill my thirsty supercharged beast, well rather sadly we are then forced to consider cars like the subject of this thread. Said supercharged beast is relegated to a once a week drive on the weekend

The food issue is just too tough to consider, allready around a third of the world goes hungry every day..oh dear, that can only get worse.

On the plus side, people will have to dramatically re-think their lifestyles, that cheap flight to London for $1,800 return will probably be completly out of the question in the future, your holiday will probably be somewhere nearby to your local community but is that really so bad ??

People will get back into cycling, there are allready electrically assisted and full electric push bikes, they'll become far more common-place, people will shop locally, work locally or commute on electric powered trains and so on.

If we had too many of us could do without cars, or learn too.
But as alluded too yesterday Australia has a unique advantage, very abundent LPG reserves. I've done some reasearch yesterday and it appears N.Z. are basically self-sufficient in LPG for most of the year, (there are some imports from Australia during peak winter demand but it isn't much. There appears to be about 20 years LPG supply presently existing in proven reserves in N.Z., counting existing plants that convert natural gas to LPG, an expensive process that partly explins the much higher price for LPG in N.Z.
Australian LPG reserves are vast and very, very abundent, there's far more than 20 years cheap supply, any thinking Australian will realise this should be a serious consideration in their next vehicle choice.The new Liquid injection Falcon is definitly an option I'll look at down the track when it comes time to replace my SC beast.

[aussie muscle]

Originally Posted by Rodge

Australian LPG reserves are vast and very, very abundent, there's far more than 20 years cheap supply, any thinking Australian will realise this should be a serious consideration in their next vehicle choice.

of course, Australia is selling it off cheap, like we're doing with coal (and presumably will do with uranium).

[irish2]

Originally Posted by loftie

Interesting where the next evolution in automotive technology is going to go...



The thing with technology is - anything is possible.

10 years ago if you had have explained the concept of an i-pad and wifi - it would have sounded like something from a sci/fi film...

20 years ago if you had have explained the concept of a hybrid car that shares both petrol and battery power - again it would have been met with blank looks

30 years ago if you had have explained that you were going to be able to sit in your loungeroom and play a simulated war game with people all around the world for hours on end (read: COD3) they would have said it will never happen...

Mate 10 years ago the HP TC 1100 was around. It bore the same dimensions and touch screen capability of the iPad, it even had more power.

Over 30 years ago the first hybrid cars were being built.

Electric vehicles have been on the radar for a long time and the simple fact is petroleum is still the cheapest and simplest fuel source available.

[2011G6E]

"Peak oil" is a bit of a misnomer as well...it implies, or is meant to imply, that oil is running out. It isn't. It's still being discovered in vast quantities in various places around the world, and some countries have plenty in reserve but artificially control supply by restricting production.
Oil reserves are an unknown, but will last a very long time yet. If a decent way of producing a biofuel to "water it down" is brought on line in economically viable ways...probably using farmed bacteria if promising research is anything to go by instead of covering massive areas of food-producing land with corn...it will last even longer.

In the seventies they said fuel was running out, in the early eighties I saw motoring books looking to the future (I have one by Peter Wherrit) saying that around the year 2000 oil would be "virtually all gone" and electric cars would be the commonest form of transport.

Unless the government grows a pair and we go nuclear, electricity on a wide scale to suit our vast country will be coal produced, with some gas fired as well. Solar is an expensive pipe-dream for anything but individual house use, wind power has it's knockers as well and is unreliable, tidal and hydro have the greenies up in arms whenever a project is mentioned, and all of them share the same problem that you can't reliably store electricity...it has to be produced pretty much as needed, on demand, and for base-load needs such as when everyone turns on the power at 6pm at night.
There's no easy answers, there's no magic bullet, and fusion power is still a long way off, so we have to make best with what we have and use it efficiently.

I just took the missus over to Blackwater in the G6E...the daughter in law and grandson were in the back as well, it's nearly 40 degrees here and there at the moment, stinking hot, we had the air con going and cruise control set on 103kph. The trip computer said we were returning about 7.5 ltr/100km. If you'd have walked up to an 18 year old me back in 1983 with my 270hp Valiant Charger that burned $50+ of super a week when it was 36 cents a liter, and told me that in the second decade of the 21st century I would own a big Australian made sedan with a 4 liter straight six that produced 270hp and returned nearly 38mpg when driven even reasonably carefully, I'd have laughed in your face.

[jpd80]

Plenty of oil remains, the source and feasibility changes with increasing price.

[bobthebilda]

Originally Posted by 2011G6E

"Peak oil" is a bit of a misnomer as well...it implies, or is meant to imply, that oil is running out. It isn't. It's still being discovered in vast quantities in various places around the world, and some countries have plenty in reserve but artificially control supply by restricting production.
.

Peak oil doesnt imply that oil is running out. If you think about it logically, oil started running out, when they first started using it. Peak oil implies that the maximum rate of extraction has occurred. Most energy observers suspect that peak oil was reached in 2005 (oil production has continued to rise over the last 6 years, but that increase has been due to the extraction of non traditional oils such as tar sands etc).

Oil will never run out, for the mere fact that even the best wells in the world dont extract the last 30% of oil etc. The biggest issue that we face in the near future, is the energy required to extract the oil that we get. Even the second largest producer in the world (saudia arabia), has to pump 2 barrels of seawater into their wells (to maintain oil uplift), to extract 1 barrel of oil. This now results in saudi's getting a mix of 30% water / 70% crude coming out of the well. This then needs to be seperated to make 100% crude oil. The saudis now pump out 9 million barrels a day, but use 3.5 million on its own use, leaving 5.5 million for export. Theres a great risk that in 10 years from now, the saudis ( and alot of oil exporters) might still be producing 9 million barrels a year, but they need the 9 million barrels to satisfy their own needs and to use it to extract more oil. Why would a saudi sell a barrel of oil that would provide heat (or travel or electricity) for weeks, if (in exchange) they got 10 x $100 notes that only provided heat for a minute when burnt.

[irish2]

Originally Posted by bobthebilda

Peak oil doesnt imply that oil is running out. If you think about it logically, oil started running out, when they first started using it. Peak oil implies that the maximum rate of extraction has occurred. Most energy observers suspect that peak oil was reached in 2005 (oil production has continued to rise over the last 6 years, but that increase has been due to the extraction of non traditional oils such as tar sands etc).

Oil will never run out, for the mere fact that even the best wells in the world dont extract the last 30% of oil etc. The biggest issue that we face in the near future, is the energy required to extract the oil that we get. Even the second largest producer in the world (saudia arabia), has to pump 2 barrels of seawater into their wells (to maintain oil uplift), to extract 1 barrel of oil. This now results in saudi's getting a mix of 30% water / 70% crude coming out of the well. This then needs to be seperated to make 100% crude oil. The saudis now pump out 9 million barrels a day, but use 3.5 million on its own use, leaving 5.5 million for export. Theres a great risk that in 10 years from now, the saudis ( and alot of oil exporters) might still be producing 9 million barrels a year, but they need the 9 million barrels to satisfy their own needs and to use it to extract more oil. Why would a saudi sell a barrel of oil that would provide heat (or travel or electricity) for weeks, if (in exchange) they got 10 x $100 notes that only provided heat for a minute when burnt.

Oil is always forming. We are just removing it faster than it forms.