Box GT demand up?

[Reefer]

Just having a quick squiz through AMCS website and notice a distinct lack of XR XT XW XY GT's for sale at the moment. A few modified cars but nothing like what there was 12 months ago.

Is demand on the rise again?

[SSD-85]

More like people have given up trying to sell them for over 100k. Since no one wants to pay that anymore. Or theres no buyers in that ridiculous price range.

[hankscorpio]

I think because the musclecar market has pulled back a fair bit since the 2007 peak, many potential sellers are holding off selling now in the hope that they will be able to get more $$ in the future.

The numbers of advertised cars on AMCS has been steadily dropping over the last few years and while there are still a handful of top notch/unique cars selling for big $$, the remainder of the market is very stagnant.

I think the demand is still there, but in general people aren't willing to pay big $$ for the cars. I've seen many cars that are advertised for many months and years at a time now which indicates many sellers are still unrealistic with their pricing.

[Stefan]

Well, a car is worth what the seller is willing to accept...

[Revolver]

Originally Posted by Stefan

Well, a car is worth what the seller is willing to accept...

Exactly right. And no seller ever thinks about that....

"Oh my god its worth a hundred grand!!! Uh-huh!

Ah wrong sunshine. The harsh reality hits when they cant sell.

[Burnout]

Originally Posted by Stefan

Well, a car is worth what the seller is willing to accept...

Alternatively it's only worth what someone will pay for the car, on any given day.

[Blue Roo]

I think a lot of the cashed up baby boomers got their fingers burnt with an over heated muscle cars market and the GFC, and are hanging on to them. Hoping the market will bounce back to sell the cars and recoup their lossess.

[Stefan]

Originally Posted by Burnout

Alternatively it's only worth what someone will pay for the car, on any given day.

Nope, Value = actual sale price.

How do Real Estate agents value property? Sale price.

It takes two to determine a value, a buyer willing to pay a price and a seller willing to accept the offer, that price is the value of the car.

There are a few XC Cobras for sale, I love them, all priced around $100K, I'm willing to pay $50K but no-one is willing to accept my offer, they might if I offer $90K. What's an XC Cobra worth? $50K or around $90K?

[Nikked]

I'd say that the generation that grew up when the XR-XY's were around have all bought there garage trophies, and the next generation will be buying the other series of cars...

[Scooter]

I personally think that the money is not there to be spent like it once was, and that people are being cautious in these uncertain times with what lies ahead with these elections? That is the feeling I get out here in the West anyway. And it is not just the older cars, the EB and EL GTs and T series are not selling and there are not as many for sale as before either.

[mcnews]

When you look at the unbelievable yank iron you can get for 50k........

[GTPete]

I dont think box car demand has ever wained, pre GFC they were heading beyond 100k as a minimum, back then cash was easier to get even if it was borrowed.

Now mid/post GFC the sale price has dropped but cash is harder to obtain and borrowing money is more difficult for many who would like to own a classic.

The gap between available cash and the sale price to own a box car is still relatively the same.
Unfortunately they are still out of reach for many. Some get bitter about it, others beg, borrow or steel to own one and some couldnt care less.
Take your pick on where you stand but you cant ignore the laws of supply and demand especially when it comes to a collectible limited run product that has such a huge following.

[Nikked]

Originally Posted by mcnews

When you look at the unbelievable yank iron you can get for 50k........

mustangs from 20k...

[Stefan]

Originally Posted by mcnews

When you look at the unbelievable yank iron you can get for 50k........

The US cars are certainly cheaper. But for me I've always wanted an XY GT and loved the XA GT Coupes since I was 12 years old. There is no point buying a Dodge Charger, Comaro or Mustang or anything else if all you've ever wanted is a Falcon GT.

If I only want a 70s muscle car with a V8 then sure the US cars are much better value.

[gcg2503]

Originally Posted by mcnews

When you look at the unbelievable yank iron you can get for 50k........

Just dont strip the car of its paint to reveal what a US restoration entails

[BroncosXR8]

Try finding an XA GT!

There's a decent looking reasonably priced one in Darwin, a wreck for almost the same price and then it shoots upto 80k plus for an RPO or coupe in good condition...

FML

Had a serious think about the Darwin one though

[XBROO]

Yep when ever I pull up in my XBGT coupe, it gets more on lookers then the 100 odd mustang that are there. When I first got my coupe 20 odd years a go, my mates and I used to drool when we saw a mustang. And because of this no one wanted our cars, so hardly anybody looked after them. I got my coupe from a devorce settlement, he had a mach 1 and the coupe, he had to sell one. At the time the mach 1 was more desirable so he keeped that, don't know about now.

Look to me the market has gone down, but will never drop to the prices before the boom. I would of been flat out getting 18k to 20k before the boom. I don't think we'll see them prices again.

[RedHotGT]

My take on the market:

There are plenty of very good cars out there for those with a budget in mind.

The difficulty for some of the sellers, is like someone mentioned earlier above. A lot of the cars were bought during the boom, as it was on it's way up. People got caught up in the hype and didn't want to miss out on the investment and the opportunity. But of course, the market was highly inflated and came back to reality very quickly.

You could probably argue that the market is still inflated - but what market isn't when there are so many people with vested interests.

Also - phases (pardon the pun) change and people change what they are interested in based on their budget, their personal situation, etc.

Just like someone mentioned earlier - there was a time where nobody wanted XA/XB/XC coupes - and they were super cheap. That time has passed. There are cars like that now also - you just gotta work out what they are.

To me - there are a few types of buyers out there. BUYERS - not dreamers.

1) Buyers who want what they want - and will get it at all costs. Pay top dollar for the right car, and pay good money for work to be done to it ensuring the car reaches their high standard. They buy the cars that people remember when telling stories.

2) Buyers who want something - just to be in it. Have a budget to work with, and don't have a badge/body style stuck in their head. Would consider 3-5 types of cars and are not fixed on anything in particular - so long as they are pretty good overall.

3) Buyers who are over-researched and unrealistic - They look at the cars expecting a concourse show winner at the bargain basement price. They believe that because THEY are buying, that they should get what they want, how they want it, but don't want to pay the price asked for the car. They pick on the car and try to devalue with their 'expert knowledge' (ie: Thats the wrong aerial - this car must be a mock up, etc)

4) Buyers who take their time - They wait for the right car to pop up. They don't have to rush out and buy the first one that comes up - even if it looks like the car of their dreams. Usually happy to pay a fair price, sometimes more than others would consider, to secure a good/great car.

5) Buyers who do not meet ANY of the above criteria - sometimes there are surprises and you'll have a buyer that you don't expect. They just come from nowhere, buy the car, and don't give you headaches.

Sure - there are other types of buyers, but these above examples are the ones that I reckon exist mostly.... And I say this without any single person in mind, or any single car in mind.

[302 XC]

Originally Posted by RedHotGT

My take on the market:

There are plenty of very good cars out there for those with a budget in mind.

The difficulty for some of the sellers, is like someone mentioned earlier above. A lot of the cars were bought during the boom, as it was on it's way up. People got caught up in the hype and didn't want to miss out on the investment and the opportunity.

Many ,many used equity in their homes to fund these toys
But when the bubble burst, house prices went down,or sales wernt as fluent and those using they equity got caught out,when they couldnt sell their house to clear their over spent debt
Free cash,isnt there anymore and due to the world issues, many arent keen to borrow huge amounts on such so called investments
Try goin to a bank asking for 100 large for a 40 year old car .....
Got more chance of winning the lotto without a ticket

[2011G6E]

Many many people got stung badly buying at the peak...as said above, even morgaging their homes to buy into it hoping for prices to rise and rise (because we all know, prices never fall, do they...) and now they're stuck with something that A: they can never recoup the cost of, and B: if they do try to sell, will have to bite a large slice of reality biscuit and ask half what the paid...maybe down to a quarter what they paid, which would never pay off the loans.

They're probably desperately hanging on waiting for the prices to boom again, but people won't be that silly twice.

[Stefan]

Originally Posted by 2011G6E

Many many people got stung badly buying at the peak......maybe down to a quarter what they paid, which would never pay off the loans.

I think this gets a little overdone, a fair few would loose money no doubt, very few if any would loose 75% of their investment. Some Phase 3 buyers would loose big, but how many cars really sold for around a mill. A couple, maybe 3?

[XBROO]

My car only owes me 8k,(bought it for 5.5K over 20 years ago had an engine rebuild, mags, but haven't included rego) so if I sell it for more then 8k I'll be making a profit. Only because I've always been into these cars. And I haven't just jump on the band wagon because they went up in price and evreybody thinks they are cool. For a while I used to joke with my mates and say I couldn't afford to buy my old ford. There was a time when prices were high I did concider selling as I thought I was going to loose my job. But then I realized I couldn't part with it, so like my wife said it's not worth nothing because I won't sell it. So I guess it's value is $0.

[aussie muscle]

i think the GFC has scared away the 'investors', but enthusiasts are still in the market.
while the 700,000 phase 3s have come down in price the genuine GTs haven't.

i couldn't justify the cost of a xa-xc coupe, so i bought a fairlane from that era.

[RedHotGT]

Originally Posted by aussie muscle

i think the GFC has scared away the 'investors', but enthusiasts are still in the market.
while the 700,000 phase 3s have come down in price the genuine GTs haven't.

i couldn't justify the cost of a xa-xc coupe, so i bought a fairlane from that era.

All the models of GTs went soaring at the same time and scale as the PH3... The going rate for an XY GT was $200-$250k for a period there - and same goes for everything else lower in the food chain. Now $100k will buy you a very good XY GT - and much less if you want to buy a fixer...

Someone mentioned above about real estate and people using equity or remortgaging their house to get their hands on all that money... that was how I understood most people entering the big dollar market...

Since then, real estate haulted and in some cases fallen, meaning that their idea that the house would 'absorb' the cost of their car 'investment' simply hasn't happened... So instead of owning a $600k-$800k with a $300k-$400k mortgage... today they have a $500k-$700k house with a $500k-$700k mortgage, and a car that they 'thought' was worth $200k-$300k+ (and was going to INCREASE in value) which in reality is worth probably half of that today - and a much smaller pool of buyers...

So - until the real estate has another big spike in value (unlikely any time soon) then the cars will stay or fall further than they are today....

Good time to buy though... for houses or cars - if you've got the CASH... but I never borrow money for toys.... no point paying interest on something that is parked.............

[Stefan]

Originally Posted by RedHotGT

All the models of GTs went soaring at the same time and scale as the PH3... The going rate for an XY GT was $200-$250k for a period there - and same goes for everything else lower in the food chain. Now $100k will buy you a very good XY GT - and much less if you want to buy a fixer...

How many XY GTs do you own or have you bought?

Again no doubt prices have come down BUT you are comparing premium car at the height of the market, which would be say a Vermilion Fire, black trim factory 4speed, factory sunroof, unrestored with history and books selling for $250K to what's for sale now maybe a Bronze Wine, auto with brown trim for $100K. Totally diffent value and cannot be compared.

Show me a "good" XY GT for $100K, by that I mean a car that would have topped at $250K at the top of the market. 5 years ago.

The last car that I recall in a hero colour of True Blue factory manual, restored and loaded with repro parts sold for $160K less than 12 months ago.

[RedHotGT]

Originally Posted by Stefan

How many XY GTs do you own or have you bought?

Again no doubt prices have come down BUT you are comparing premium car at the height of the market, which would be say a Vermilion Fire, black trim factory 4speed, factory sunroof, unrestored with history and books selling for $250K to what's for sale now maybe a Bronze Wine, auto with brown trim for $100K. Totally diffent value and cannot be compared.

Show me a "good" XY GT for $100K, by that I mean a car that would have topped at $250K at the top of the market. 5 years ago.

The last car that I recall in a hero colour of True Blue factory manual, restored and loaded with repro parts sold for $160K less than 12 months ago.

I'm really glad you asked this question.

Well - I can't 'show' you a car that is for sale as described - because I'm talking about cars that have actually 'SOLD' and are no longer on the market. The cars that are for sale vs what they sell for is a different figure all together. Having said that - it's the figure that we all get to discuss publicly - because it's unlikely - unless you're involved in the transaction - to find out the true sale price.

Also for the record - the 'good' cars weren't at $250k in the peak. The 'best' ones were - and those same cars would probably be around the $150k+ area today. Would they actually sell? Impossible to know.

I do take your example correctly - and very much agree with your logic. Unfortunately the opposite of your logic is what drives prices up - the guys with the Auto Bronze Wine / Saddle Trim XYs assuming that their car is valued the same as the Manual Vermillion High Optioned car.

And also - your example is perfect for the next thing I'm going to say as well. $100k recently bought a gen Vermillion Fire 4-speed, Fact sunroof XY GT. Known history, has had an outside paintjob within the last 20 years - but not fully restored (though - wouldn't call it unrestored either). I would have called the car a solid 8 out of 10 in condition.

I also recently was in touch with a guy who had $120k to spend on an XY GT - and what he wanted was a genuine car with a sunroof - preferably yellow, then red, then blue. He could not find a car that suited. Some were too expensive for his budget, some didn't quite have the specs he wanted, and some weren't in the condition that he wanted. But someone who has $120k to spend doesn't necessarily need to buy today... they can wait for tomorrow...

XY GTs - and in fact most collectable Muscle Cars are very difficult to nail a price 'guide' on - because of the huge amount of variables, and the limited (read: Small) pool of actual buyers.

The Yellow XY PH3 that sold last month - $500k - was a surprise to me.... There have been other cars on the market that have struggled at $300k, and there have been others that have been sold at around $250k (a Track Red Sunroof Car comes to mind from last year).

I hope this answers some of your doubts.

In an ideal world where privacy wasn't an issue i'd love to reel off VINS and names to 'prove' my stories. Though, those who know me will have no doubt that my examples are not fairy tales.

[Stefan]

OK that reads a little different now, so what we are saying some premium XY GTs sold for $250K 5 years ago would be lucky to pull $150K but would certainly take a while to sell as you need to find the right buyer.

Yes an XY GT can be had for $100K but you'd need to comprimose on condition or settle for a less desireble combo.

BUT despite the above you might get lucky and you might pick up a killer combo for under $100K but that would be out of the ordinary.

In that sense I totally agree.

[302 XC]

Originally Posted by aussie muscle

i think the GFC has scared away the 'investors', but enthusiasts are still in the market.
while the 700,000 phase 3s have come down in price the genuine GTs haven't.

i couldn't justify the cost of a xa-xc coupe, so i bought a fairlane from that era.

Many people did opt for the lesser valued models, and there was some absolute bargains as many sold them to help fund those "Big money spinners,that didnt workout "
Theres still some great value for money "Outside the box thinking" bargains to be had
For me, i couldnt justify a half million or more, garage sitter,or an extention of the manhood
Id rather step down a peg or two, and enjoy the drive,the floggin,and drive the wheels of it

[pottery beige]

there is something very cool bout rolling in a real GT..

flog it, throw it around, omg even drive it in the rain.....

[Stefan]

Originally Posted by pottery beige

there is something very cool bout rolling in a real GT..

flog it, throw it around, omg even drive it in the rain.....

Had to run in the motor properly after the full nut and bolt restoration