Decision on Future Falcon Wagon coming soon.

[vztrt]

Personally I think it could survive as it has been stable in numbers. But the money to spend on the vehicle will need to be minimal.

http://www.goauto.com.au/mellor/mell...25766D00223BEC

Axe hovers over Falcon wagon

Ford Australia to decide the fate of its Falcon wagon within months

13 November 2009

By JAMES STANFORD

THE fate of Ford's ageing Falcon wagon will be decided in the next few months.

Ford Australia president Marin Burela today said a decision on the future of the load hauler will be made next month or next January.

The most likely option is phase out the large Falcon wagon and rely on the mid-size Mondeo wagon, which was introduced four months ago, to fill the gap created alongside the Territory medium SUV.

Ford has built a Falcon wagon alongside the sedan in Australia since September 1960, when the wood-panelled Squire wagon was introduced two months after the XK sedan.

It now produces 400 to 500 Falcon wagons a month, most of which are bought by fleets. While previous wagons were available in various trim levels, including XR versions in the mid 1990s, the current model is only available as a base XT model.

Mr Burela said no decision had been made on the Falcon wagon, but hinted it was not long for this world.

“The great challenge we have is to make sure that we are not competing with ourselves in the market,” Mr Burela said.

“What we are seeing is that more and more and more of our customers that had really bought into the Falcon wagon proposal are now looking at the Mondeo (wagon) and saying 'Wow, the Mondeo package is outstanding'.

“It is a modern car with modern technology, is the only vehicle in its class to have voice control as standard, its package verses the Sportswagon is better in terms of what you can carry. So we are looking at this and asking our customers: 'What is it that you want?'.”

The current Falcon wagon is a BF MkIII model that was not upgraded to the FG model specification with the sedan and ute models in mid-2008. Its rear design has not been changed since the AU Falcon of 1998 and the leaf-spring rear suspension dates back even further.

It is only available with the last-generation petrol six-cylinder engine or the E-Gas equivalent and uses the old four-speed automatic transmission from Drive Systems International.

Ford Australia has spent very little money on the vehicle, but did introduce electronic stability control in May 2008.

It has considered killing off the vehicle several times and senior executives expected it to die a quick death after the introduction of the Territory SUV in 2004 - a car Ford thought would appeal to fleets.

But fleet customers, including big buyers such as Telstra, opted to keep purchasing the Falcon wagon.

The big Ford faced another challenge with the introduction of the Holden VE Commodore-based Sportswagon in July 2008, which is popular with private customers, but even that failed to kill off the Falcon wagon immediately because fleets appreciated both the Ford’s cheap price and massive load area.

Holden said when it introduced the Sportswagon, which had a smaller load area, that the current Falcon and previous Commodore wagon were the largest car-based wagons in the world.

As they are the most prominent customers of the Falcon wagon, the large fleets will ultimately decide its fate.

“There is Telstra and a range of other customers that we have had a long-term relationship with and yes we have been in constant dialogue with them,” Mr Burela said.

“We have shared with them some of our thoughts, they have given us some of their early feedback on what their needs are and all of that is being taken into consideration in terms of where we ultimately go.”

Mr Burela said that Ford Australia would not let its customers down.

“What we are looking at is how do we not disappoint - that we in fact delight and create a reason for people to stay with wagon, whether that be Falcon or Mondeo,” he said.

“With the two of them sitting there side by side, we are just letting the market tell us what we want. Once we have received that, which we think will take another few months, one and a half or two months.”

If it is killed off, the Falcon wagon will be the second locally manufactured Ford to cease production in recent years, following the iconic long-wheelbase Fairlane/LTD's demise in late 2007.

[SM1DY]

Sounds like the fate of the wagon has already been decided, considering that they have an alternative, the mondeo wagon, all ready in line to fill the void.

[vztrt]

Originally Posted by SM1DY

Sounds like the fate of the wagon has already been decided, considering that they have an alternative, the mondeo wagon, all ready in line to fill the void.

Just remember that the Falcon wagon was canned in 06 and came back. Granted that the Mondeo Wagon wasn't around but it seem's to have sold pretty slowly so far.

[Quasi]

Originally Posted by SM1DY

Sounds like the fate of the wagon has already been decided, considering that they have an alternative, the mondeo wagon, all ready in line to fill the void.

Fill the void my butt. anybody who believes a Mondeo wagon is a suitable stand-in needs to open thier eyes. Ford have obviously already given up the fight.

Quite some time ago I was in line for a position that included a lease vehicle of my choice. A wagon was the practical option, but I wanted a performance model, none of that 'old fart woolworths' anti-style crap. I missed out on the position, but was ready to sign for an SS Sportwagon, as there was/is no Ford option.

An FG XR8 wagon would look really sweet in my driveway, but since Ford have thier head up thier butt I would happily look at the alternative, and that means no Ford in my driveway anymore, as the wife owns a Magna and I'd have to part with my beloved Ghia since I can't afford three cars.

[prydey]

i doubt you would fit any more in the back of a ve wagon than you would in a sedan boot.

people who argue that ford have lost the plot because they don't build a wagon in all sorts of variants (sports/luxury) are the ones who can't see the big picture. once upon a time you could buy a xr6 wagon (ed, ef) both these models combined sold little more than 800units over 2-3 years. there is no market for them.

when the ve wagon was released, they sold extremely well and all the critics said - told you so blah blah blah. a few months on and its not so rosy. i don't see anywhere near the amount of holden wagons anymore and adelaide is holden country. it would be interesting to see the sales split for the commodore sedan/wagon now.

[vztrt]

Originally Posted by prydey

when the ve wagon was released, they sold extremely well and all the critics said - told you so blah blah blah. a few months on and its not so rosy. i don't see anywhere near the amount of holden wagons anymore and adelaide is holden country. it would be interesting to see the sales split for the commodore sedan/wagon now.

It seems to have gone from 1600 to 1000 quite quickly, at least the Terri was a few years as it dropped down to this level (no surprising as it hasn't really changed).

[phillyc]

Originally Posted by vztrt

It seems to have gone from 1600 to 1000 quite quickly, at least the Terri was a few years as it dropped down to this level (no surprising as it hasn't really changed).

Well, for a car that was spruiked as beating every SUV since it's release. I think the sportwagon has now been outsold by Captiva 2 months in a row.

[FPV GTHO]

Originally Posted by Quasi

Fill the void my butt. anybody who believes a Mondeo wagon is a suitable stand-in needs to open thier eyes. Ford have obviously already given up the fight.

Quite some time ago I was in line for a position that included a lease vehicle of my choice. A wagon was the practical option, but I wanted a performance model, none of that 'old fart woolworths' anti-style crap. I missed out on the position, but was ready to sign for an SS Sportwagon, as there was/is no Ford option.

An FG XR8 wagon would look really sweet in my driveway, but since Ford have thier head up thier butt I would happily look at the alternative, and that means no Ford in my driveway anymore, as the wife owns a Magna and I'd have to part with my beloved Ghia since I can't afford three cars.

What have Ford to fight for when all they have is local sales? Do you think Holden wouldve still developed the sportwagon if they knew those promised US exports would tank?

[Gobes32]

Ford still make more money selling 400 wagons a month than they would selling 1000 Mondeo's.

[madmelon]

Originally Posted by Gobes32

Ford still make more money selling 400 wagons a month than they would selling 1000 Mondeo's.

...and an LPG Falcon wagon is cheaper to run, has better performance and can lug a whole heap more crap in the boot...

[phillyc]

Ford is selling all they can make at the Aussie factory every month. Currently that's 2400 sedan, 400 wagon, 1000 Ute and 1000 Terri.

So, the question is, do they need to keep the wagon going? I say yes, because it is currently still 5-10% of volume.

I do think that they could update to FG sport wagon and increase total sales. If nothing else, for those wanting something different, but still a stylish Falcon. You could conceivably get two purchases/leases out of some people during the one lifecycle.

Many people buying a VE s/wagon have probably had a sedan, their lease ended, didn't want to change brands (or couldn't), but didn't want the 'same' car again. So instead they got the s/wagon. I'd suggest as many as 1 in 3. It provides a second option for people to either stay or to purchase. I reckon 1 in 3 were existing fleet buyers. The last 1 in 3 are converts from either SUVs or conquest sales. Effectively GMH spent their money to get this extra 3-400 sales a month.

I believe that FG sportwagon could sell in the 700/mth range so long as it offered some more room than VE, but not drastically less than BF3.

PS. Yes, i'd buy a new FG sportwagon when we are ready (18mths away) to update. I'd love to have a sporty wagon with IRS. Otherwise it will be most likely 1yo Terri.

[FPV8U]

I'll put it this way, a Territory isn't an option for me as i feel they are too large and if i wanted something that big i'll get an explorer.

If they get Falcon Wagon to a Sporty image & feel as per Holden Sportswagen, then they will have made the GF's new car..

Hurry up Ford the clock is ticking.

[FalconXV]

To go all the way of the sportwagon and Mondeo, ( form at the expense of function) would be a mistake. I say they can combine the room and black-box of the BF with a dose of kinetic style, a large area is easier to work with, they just need to be creative with the window-line, rear lights and add some stylish features.
That way, the only pressings they would need to add are rear door skins, bootlid and maybe roofline. I don't see how it doesn't make sense to update if sales arent flagging. Granted Mondeo wags looks pretty practical, but Falcon wagonis a perennial favourite with plenty of potential yet.

[4VCLEVO]

I need the falcon wagon. I don't want a front wheel drive mondeo, and I dont want a teritory.

[Gobes32]

Originally Posted by FalconXV

To go all the way of the sportwagon and Mondeo, ( form at the expense of function) would be a mistake. I say they can combine the room and black-box of the BF with a dose of kinetic style, a large area is easier to work with, they just need to be creative with the window-line, rear lights and add some stylish features.
That way, the only pressings they would need to add are rear door skins, bootlid and maybe roofline. I don't see how it doesn't make sense to update if sales arent flagging. Granted Mondeo wags looks pretty practical, but Falcon wagonis a perennial favourite with plenty of potential yet.

Sorry to burst the bubble but......

New Roof is 3 dies.
New door inner and outer is 16 dies
New body sides will be 8 dies
New liftgate inner and outer is 8 dies

At 100k to build a die we are already over 3 mill and not one bit of r & d has been done, nor crash testing etc. Also, you would most likely need to modify the floorpan, etc. It will cost near on 20 - 30 mill just to give it a nice ****-end. Averaging 3k profit on each unit sold, you will need to sell 10,000 before you even earn a cent. And remember, this is only a facelift.........

[Fordman1]

Originally Posted by Gobes32

Sorry to burst the bubble but......

New Roof is 3 dies.
New door inner and outer is 16 dies
New body sides will be 8 dies
New liftgate inner and outer is 8 dies

At 100k to build a die we are already over 3 mill and not one bit of r & d has been done, nor crash testing etc. Also, you would most likely need to modify the floorpan, etc. It will cost near on 20 - 30 mill just to give it a nice ****-end. Averaging 3k profit on each unit sold, you will need to sell 10,000 before you even earn a cent. And remember, this is only a facelift.........

Good post Gobes...

IMO the Falcon Wagon is on shakey ground !!

[FalconXV]

Originally Posted by Gobes32

Sorry to burst the bubble but......

New Roof is 3 dies.
New door inner and outer is 16 dies
New body sides will be 8 dies
New liftgate inner and outer is 8 dies

At 100k to build a die we are already over 3 mill and not one bit of r & d has been done, nor crash testing etc. Also, you would most likely need to modify the floorpan, etc. It will cost near on 20 - 30 mill just to give it a nice ****-end. Averaging 3k profit on each unit sold, you will need to sell 10,000 before you even earn a cent. And remember, this is only a facelift.........

Then the choice seems to be continue to apply the law of diminishing returns, or quickly recoup the spendings with a fresh look, thus generating more sales. Or option 3, throw the baby out with the bathwater and cede local wagon supremancy to the opposition, who have carved a niche with the segment. The nameplate is too good to die (Falcon wagon).

[prydey]

Originally Posted by Gobes32

Sorry to burst the bubble but......

New Roof is 3 dies.
New door inner and outer is 16 dies
New body sides will be 8 dies
New liftgate inner and outer is 8 dies

At 100k to build a die we are already over 3 mill and not one bit of r & d has been done, nor crash testing etc. Also, you would most likely need to modify the floorpan, etc. It will cost near on 20 - 30 mill just to give it a nice ****-end. Averaging 3k profit on each unit sold, you will need to sell 10,000 before you even earn a cent. And remember, this is only a facelift.........

thought i'd bump this post up as it seems a lot of people missed it first time around. refreshing the wagon is not a cheap task. there are no garaunteed returns if they do either. if they did build it and the specs of the luggage area stayed the same then 400 units a month is a probablility. there is also the strong possibility that additional sales wouldn't be incremental but merely eating into sedan sales.

when the ve wagon was released, everyone raved on about how well it sells and how silly ford is for not getting in on the action. the commodore sales (which include wagon) did not go up, which shows that those buying wagons were just eating into the sedan sales. ford gloated recently about the falcon sedan outselling the commodore sedan. why do you think that is? ve wagon is stealing sales. its not actually adding to the overall sales tally of the commodore. possibly the same would happen in the ford ranks. in the past ford have offered a wide range of wagons - futura, fairmont/ghia, xr6, 6cyl, 8cyl etc etc and if any of those was a viable option, surely they would still be making them.

this isn't about bragging rights down at the local, its about a car company making decisions on what is best for its bottom line.

[block58]

What about stealing sales from the Sportwagon?

If people wanted a wagon then the Sportwagon seems a pretty attractive option. If there was a competitor that wasn't outdated then that opens more sales for Ford. While it may also steal sales from the Sedan it would also give fleets a reason to upgrage.

[prydey]

Originally Posted by block58

What about stealing sales from the Sportwagon?

If people wanted a wagon then the Sportwagon seems a pretty attractive option. If there was a competitor that wasn't outdated then that opens more sales for Ford. While it may also steal sales from the Sedan it would also give fleets a reason to upgrage.

have you seen in the back of a sporthatch? a sedan would fit just as much. a sporthatch simply isn't an option for many fleets as it just doesn't offer the space.

[naddis01]

Originally Posted by prydey

when the ve wagon was released, everyone raved on about how well it sells and how silly ford is for not getting in on the action. the commodore sales (which include wagon) did not go up, which shows that those buying wagons were just eating into the sedan sales. ford gloated recently about the falcon sedan outselling the commodore sedan. why do you think that is? ve wagon is stealing sales.

I just thought I would include this graphic taken from the technical resources section. To me it appears that the Sportwagon has increased the commodore sales by around 800-1000 vehicles per month. The rate of decline in Commodore sales is still apparent, however the number of sales is on a higher plane since the introduction of the Sportwagon.

[Brazen]

Originally Posted by naddis01

I just thought I would include this graphic taken from the technical resources section. To me it appears that the Sportwagon has increased the commodore sales by around 800-1000 vehicles per month. The rate of decline in Commodore sales is still apparent, however the number of sales is on a higher plane since the introduction of the Sportwagon.

Very interesting Naddis01, it seems to confirm my own observations (which obviously would be a limited sample size).

Over the last year or so I have seen three parents at my sons school who have bought Holden Sportwagons. One replaced a Subaru Outback, one replaced a Nissan Patrol and another replaced a Mazda 3.
In those cases I believe they would have been incremental sales to Holden (im only guessing as they may have still bought a Commodore sedan if the wagon didnt exist).

And even in my case I am considering a Holden for the first time due only to a wagon being available.

[4Vman]

Originally Posted by naddis01

I just thought I would include this graphic taken from the technical resources section. To me it appears that the Sportwagon has increased the commodore sales by around 800-1000 vehicles per month. The rate of decline in Commodore sales is still apparent, however the number of sales is on a higher plane since the introduction of the Sportwagon.

That doesnt look right to me, is that a factually calculated "mean" average line or your "spin" on it?
The Commodore to Falcon split still looks about constant..
We know for a fact that since the Commodore hatch was released the sedan sales have dropped significantly comparred to Falcon sedan sales.

[prydey]

Originally Posted by naddis01

I just thought I would include this graphic taken from the technical resources section. To me it appears that the Sportwagon has increased the commodore sales by around 800-1000 vehicles per month. The rate of decline in Commodore sales is still apparent, however the number of sales is on a higher plane since the introduction of the Sportwagon.

the lines that you have added in support your theory because you put them there. where you have the second line that you claim is the release of the sportwagon, you will notice that the whole industry improved. if the wagon is the reason for the rise in commodore sales, why the rise in falcon?

if there was no wagon, do you really think the falcon would have been close to outselling the sedan?

there is no way that the wagon has boosted commodore sales by 800 - 1000 each month. the monthly sales figures tell a different story. commodore numbers remain consitant with the industry rising and falling regardless of wagon or no wagon.

[davids_gxl]

I need a wagon 2.

[R-Design]

Ford will be cramming a square peg into a round hole by replacing the Falcon Wagon with the Mondeo. Rather than maintaining their 400 odd wagon sales they’ll probably lose their entire wagon market. Investing minimal dollars in the current BFIII wagon to make it euro IV compliant and keeping it available to fleets has to be their best option, until another alternative can be found. Updating the XF Ute worked during the EA era; I can’t see any difference here.

[Airmon]

There would more then likely be added expenses for Ford to continue producing (effectively) out dated panels along side the FG. For 400 units a month it might not be worth it.

[imugli]

Whilst I can see people's points re 'needing' the Falcon wagon, think about this rationally...

Ford build 400 wagons a month and sells them to fleets for what I imagine would be high 20s - low 30s (can someone confirm?)

With FG production stretched to capacity, if Ford can stop wagon production and replace it with 400 Terry's & FG Falcs, sales of which are concentrated more on the higher spec, higher profit models, surely it makes sense from a purely business perspective, even if the development cost of AU-BF has been ammortised long ago, therefore increasing the wagon's per unit profits...

The aim of the day has to be to make as large a profit as possible, not simply keeping 400 people a month happy if it sacrifices that.

[R-Design]

Originally Posted by imugli

The aim of the day has to be to make as large a profit as possible, not simply keeping 400 people a month happy if it sacrifices that.

If you upset your existing fleet business by not providing a vehicle suiting their requirements you stand to lose a lot more than just that sale. For example Fleet “A” is an exclusive National Fleet Ford customer buying 5 Falcon Wagons & 20 Falcon Sedans on average monthly. They’re not happy with the Mondeo as the replacement to the Falcon wagon, and another manufacturer has a more suitable range of vehicles. What happens then? You guessed it; Ford stands to lose a lot more than 400 units / month. Even Toyota went through this when they tried to replace the Camry Wagon with a Corolla.

I’d also doubt discontinuing the Wagon would automatically mean more Sedan sales. Ford AU can/has built more vehicles; they’re currently tracking to what they can sell.

[BIGJB]

Originally Posted by Boss315

If you upset your existing fleet business by not providing a vehicle suiting their requirements you stand to lose a lot more than just that sale. For example Fleet “A” is an exclusive National Fleet Ford customer buying 5 Falcon Wagons & 20 Falcon Sedans on average monthly. They’re not happy with the Mondeo as the replacement to the Falcon wagon, and another manufacturer has a more suitable range of vehicles. What happens then? You guessed it; Ford stands to lose a lot more than 400 units / month.

That is exactly right. The bigger picture needs to be looked at.
A few years back I use to supply a the South East Qld region large Multi National Company.
My company had to deliver to their store on a daily basis 6 days a week, one of these stores was
along way out of any of my drivers usual routes. In fact it was actually costing me a
lose of around $15 dollars in diesel and $25 in wages every delivery.
But if I said no it just isn't viable to do this drop any longer I stood to lose all of these stores
which would have cost me to lose around 90k per year.

What I am saying is at the end of the day saving few dollars by not meeting a market need can
cost you a lot more in the long run so sometimes ya just have to bite the bullet and cop the loses.