It might sound like im thinking wishfully, which i often hear expressed about the housing market and buyers currently locked out who want to swoop in. But cars are much cheaper and more liquid than housing. And the other issue is that any market that experiences big changes is generally doing so in a vastly changed context.
Double digit unemployment probably qualifies there.
Anyhoo... Australia has sold a million cars a year new since at least 2010.
https://www.carsguide.com.au/car-adv...-figures-70982
Despite this, the average car is still around 10 years old. So there must be a large number of older cars still around.
New car sales peaked some three years ago after a climb dating back from the mid 80s. The dip as a result of the last recession is quite clear.
1985: 695,856,
1986: 530,251,
1987: 451,829,
1988: 512,161,
1989: 607,497,
1990: 617,298,
1991: 511,924,
1992: 541,634,
1993: 555,306,
1994: 616,286,
1995: 642,557,
1996: 650,049,
1997: 722,427,
1998: 807,669,
1999: 786,845,
2000:787,100,
2001: 772,681,
2002: 824,309,
2003: 909,811,
2004: 955,229,
2005: 988,269
2006: 962-965,000 (est).
Figures from here...
https://www.carsales.com.au/editoria...used-cars-7436
Then a bit of a gap.....
1.008m, 2011
1.112m in 2012,
1.36m in 2013 and
1.113m in 2014.
1.1155m 2015,
1.1178m 2016,
1.189m 2017,
1.153m 2018 and
1.062m, 2019
https://www.carsguide.com.au/car-adv...-figures-70982
And in 2020, looks like we will dip back the one million mark again for the first time in quite a while.
When i think back on 2017, its not clear to me what exactly has changed to erode sales. There could be any number of factors working together. Peak debt, perhaps?
Whatever happens, will happen in a broader context that may mean our intentions to buy or sell could change unpredictably. That sounds wishy washy.
More bluntly, even if the supply of new cars is crimped by supply chain challenges, we should have ample used cars to meet demand. Particularly if the population stagnates for two years or more with immigration turned off. But thats a whole separate topic.
We know that most new cars are financed. Business buys most of them. And we know that national gdp dropped 7 percent in the June quarter. A whole bunch of zombie businesses are unlikely to qualify for finance, surely...?
But car sales projections are impossible to guess at until next year at least when the assistance payments (seeker and keeper) are phased out. If they are and not replaced by a targeted ubi or increased basic theshold payment levels for job search assistance or business tax writeoffs.
Even then, there might be industry subsidies of some sort, depending on the skill of the lobbyists. Support your local car dealer. Or something.