Quote:
Originally Posted by T3rminator
Moderna is a 4 week interval so that should really speed up the fully vaccinated rate If there is enough supply, and no hesitancy.
Interesting to note that the issue on number of people "stuck" overseas has gone quiet all of a sudden. How many have changed their minds? Who would want to come back and be confined to curfews, 10km travel limits, no leisure, sport or retail?
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Seems national rates for first dose is around 72%. You would assume that those people will get the same type for the second dose.
I'm sure there is a ton of AZ and enough Pfizer floating around to do the second doses so lets assume that we still have a bunch of people getting what is available on the shelf the first half of this week then the Moderna shot will only be 5-10% of the total population.
I think once we hit high 70's to low 80's vaccination rates will slow quite dramatically. While we are averaging around 5% a week now I think after 80% that rate will drop to 1.5-2% per week. I would be surprised if we hit 90%.
I'm wondering if there are people actually holding out for Moderna?
In regards to people stuck overseas. The intake numbers are very low now and I'm wondering if tickets are still stupid expensive for those that do get a seat?
I think once we hit the 80% needed for international borders they will remove inbound restrictions and this will allow carriers to offer reasonably priced inbound seats for all returning Australians.
My rationale for this is that flying multiple planes here near empty to collect out bounders makes no money and causes out bound tickets to be more costly and if we assume that an average OS holiday for an Australian may be 10 days to 2 weeks then while they are away the inbound are in the quarantine facilities which will be vacated once the first wave of travellers return.
That's assuming they will still have some sort of quarantine policy for returning travellers.
It will also pose another problem for those still stuck OS. Our first OS trips will be between countries we have a travel bubble agreement with meaning that should people stuck OS want to return home as soon as borders open they will need to first get to one of the travel bubble cities to get on a plane.
Which may also have their own quarantine requirements.
See what happens I guess. Time will tell.