Quote:
Originally Posted by DJR-351
Don't know if it's the same article but i read the same on the ABC this morning, but it has a little bit more to it........and which i guess could be a big plus for getting vaccinated.
"The Delta COVID outbreak has been less deadly than those last year due to vaccinations"
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-...aths/100446044 |
The quoted 0.4% rate is a little misleading. Of the 36,159 NSW cases up to yesterday, more than half of those have been in the last 14 days where those who are possibly going to die are mostly amongst the 207 currently in ICU.
There have been 162 deaths in NSW this year which is actually a crude CMR of 0.448% but if we factor out the cases in the last 14 days then the CMR is more like 0.92% YTD and that rate has been hovering around the 1% mark since this outbreak began.
My modelling (probably a little pessimistic) shows that there will be ~170 deaths from the 18,510 cases recorded in the last 14 days.
I've said before, based on UK, Israel and Florida modelling, that the likely 80% of eligible persons vaccinated CMR is going to be between 0.4% and 1% - well less than the global average last year of 2.7%.
Worth adding that Victoria has a crude CMR this year of 0.1% so far and the adjusted CMR is 0.28%.
Whole of pandemic, Victoria has 25,786 cases and 824 deaths for an overall CMR of 3.2% thanks mostly to the aged care debacle last year. By contrast, NSW has 40,967 cases and 162 deaths for a CMR of 0.53%.