Quote:
Originally Posted by russellw
Firstly, the common cold is not a Cornavirus, it's a rhinovirus despite having similarities in some symptoms.
It's a bit early to make a call on Israel yet as the current (derestricted) wave is only in the early stages having started in mid July and it is still growing.
What can be determined is that the last 2 weeks of July saw average case numbers at ~1,700 per day and those are what translate to the deaths per day we are currently seeing.
It's a bit rough but the last 12 days of July had 21k cases and the first 12 days of August has 176 deaths which is a CMR of 0.838% or about twice what we are seeing in other high vax rate countries but also higher than the CMR for Israel across the whole pandemic to date.
The current 12 day period in August has upped the daily case rate significantly with an average of 4,121 cases per day but we'll need to wait for the next two weeks to pas before we get a picture of what that mortality rate is like.
What can be extrapolated from the data is this:
- If the CMR remains at 0.838% then the 49,549 cases over the last 12 days will result in another 415 deaths; and
- There is no sign (yet) of those case numbers reducing although they presumably will at some point.
Even if the case numbers halve or the CMR halves to about the UK/Florida level that is still going to amount to something like 6,000 deaths per annum which is 100 deaths per 100k of adult population.
In Australian terms, where our adult population is 3x the 6M of Israel, that would means something like 18k deaths per annum and I guarantee we wouldn't wear that.
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Population of Israel is 9m (unless google is wrong) think you have the Jewish population which is approx 75%. I agree we have to wait to see on Israel.
Well over 200 virus strains are implicated in causing the common cold, with rhinoviruses, coronaviruses, adenoviruses and enteroviruses being the most common. Yes the rhinovirus is the most common so what their traits are similar.
DO you think long term we can keep the virus out?
How long would you estimate it is a net positive to persevere with the lockdown strategy?
Can you give a indication of the type of economic damage you think would be too great a price to pay or is there a point where you would agree that we will have to live with he virus?